[QFi] Chance of overselling?

[QFi] Chance of overselling? I'm booked on QF 51 on 19 Jan 2014. What are the loads like on this flight? Does it look oversold on EF?

I got oversold on 22 Dec. 

I got oversold on 22 Dec. 

22 Dec is pretty peak of the peak. Being shoulder peak of sorts, 19 Jan is a little hard for me to judge. I want to see if I can get some forward information.

I'm also worried that I might be passed up for overselling-induced upgrade because I'm connecting from SYD.

Agreed, flight was packed to the rim. I have done the QF51 a few times and loads are always significantly higher then the QF5 option. You should be fine. What class are you flying in? Also what's the minimum time you have connected in BNE before? I managed to get a 1 hour 15 minute once and it was absolutely rushed. 

I'm going up on QF 504, arriving BNE 0735 and departing on QF 51 departing BNE at 1030, giving me a layover of 2h55m.

Not overly rushed - I've done it before with an hour less.

Go to flightstats.com and click on flights/flight availability. Enter flight details. Select QF51 and click on the number of seats available (18). This will show all classes availability. Hope this helps.

Thanks, but it doesn't seem to work for flights past 02 Jan?

Does work for me when I enter QF51 BNE-SIN on 19 Jan 14. Maybe try another browser. The "Time" box can be a bit confusing: select "midnight or later". It shows 9+ in all business classes, except 6 in U and economy has 9+ in WYBHKMLS and N. Less or zero in other classes. Cheers!

Ahhh no wonder. I can now see "18 seats".

What should I infer from this?

The maximum number of seats shown for any class on QF is 9 in all classes of economy and 9 for all business, so 18 in total. As the flight fills you will see the number of seats available in lower ranking classes start to reduce. So when you click on 18 seats and start to see less than 9 seats in say S class the flight is filling. In the case of your flight QF51 it is still wide open at this stage.