David, could you please write an article that explains the logic and math behind the S-Curve theory.

David, could you please write an article that explains the logic and math behind the S-Curve theory. Origins, background, assumptions, criticisms etc.

It would be interesting to understand and discuss the theory behind the 65% market share rule.

TRB: don't expect to see me write that article, it's just way too 'aviation industry' for AusBT. This is something you will more likely see on CAPA or some aviation/analysis blogs.

Thanks David. Appreciate the candour. 

TRB - did u also just read the article by Adele Ferguson in the smh?

Sounds like something made up by a management consultant.

The last article on this page might be helpful, "Does the S-Curve still exist?".

https://www.iata.org/publications/economics/market-issues/pages/profitability.aspx

I'm pretty sure the 65% market share 'line in the sand' was derived from a number pulled out of the air during an executive 'strategy session' (i.e. at the pub).