What's the likelihood of getting a points upgrade from Economy to Business on QF1/QF2 flights to London in April/May?

What's the likelihood of getting a points upgrade from Economy to Business on QF1/QF2 flights to London in April/May? I'm thinking if the $500 on Saver fare is worth the chance of getting an upgrade.

It really depends if You hold any status within QANTAS. May I ask what tier level You are at as when upgrades are processed they are in order of Platinum ONE, Platinum, Gold, Silver and then bronze. To my understanding Qantas tend to process upgrades of those who are travelling in premium economy and wanting to upgrade to business before upgrades from economy to business are processed. Hope this helps...

Not to hijack the thread but I am doing the same flight very late March. I could leave from Melbourne though on QF9. Would that have better availability?

Unfortunately I've now dropped to silver in QFF. Do i have a chance?

Otherwise would my chances be better going SQ and using my UA Mileage Plus miles to upgrade to J?

Your chances as a silver don't sound good regardless of which city you leave from.

Star Alliance upgrades on SQ are damn near nonexistent.

Have you considered booking the whole thing in miles? Last I checked it's only 67,500 UA miles for a business-class award ticket from Australia to Europe and there is often (or used to be) availability on Thai. 

I hold Gold, I understand that they prioritise according to status, I'm wondering if there simply will be enough seats available in business for these flights around that time, as I've heard that Qf1 and QF2 are often pretty full.

If you're asking whether $500 / (chance of Gold getting upgrade all the way from economy to business) < (fare difference from economy to business) - (cash value of points) I'd say probably not.

You're probably better off taking the $500 to the casino and gambling it at appropriate odds, then paying cash for the biz-class fare if you win.

I have 700,000 + points and they seems to be useless if you want to book international business as their availability is abysmal...

Slim to none

700k points? Save your $$$. Burn some points and go Cathay via HK. Much better for availability. Great business product. Low taxes. 

Try leaving via locations other than Sydney to increase your options. Adelaide is one of the better ways, I see 190k points get you 1st class on Emirates to London during the time period you specified or 139k Business on Cathay (w/ lower taxes). 

Ah the great Qantas game of chance. Nothing tells you you're a valued frequent flyer more than the uncertainty of upgrades!

If I were you, I'd keep that $500 and spend it on something nice, like an afternoon tea at Fortnums, which will leave you with a decent amount of spare change.

Upgrades are a mystery. Recently, a friend I was travelling with on a fullish flight to Santiago missed a PE to J going over but scored on the way back. He has gold status. London and LAX are probably impossible. Just not enough flight options. Probably wouldn't hurt Qantas to be a bit more transparent about upgrade availability and encourage points use at times that suits them to fill flights when needed.

I do not believe in this upgrade and would not bank on it especially for long flight to Europe. I put request for my wife and myself on MEL-FRA flight (SIN-FRA sector). They cancel this flight altogether and offer me flying by Emirates when upgrade impossible. I finished to fly by BA. Last year I put request for upgrade for my son DXB-MEL sector. Emirates was late from FRA and he missed QF flight. He finished on other lovely Emirates flight via Kuala Lumpur and I have fun pick him in airport at 2am. No request for upgrade for me anymore - it bring nothing, but bad luck.

Like Dale earlier i'm going off track here but wandered what the possibility would be for an ecomony upgrade to either PE or Business flying on QF95 with the 747 instead of QF93 on the A380. I understand the appeal to some of flying on the A380 but i love the 747 & the arrival time into LA is so much better. I don't hold any status, just points to burn.

Nil