I'm likely (70%) flying to Seoul from Sydney in July for an event (arrive 15 july, leave 23 july) and I'm not sure which of 3 options I should take (current fares are around $1100)

I'm likely (70%) flying to Seoul from Sydney in July for an event (arrive 15 july, leave 23 july) and I'm not sure which of 3 options I should take (current fares are around $1100). I should know for sure a month or so ahead of time. Judging by the price I will likely end up going Cathay Pacific economy. Vietnam airways and china southern are slightly cheaper but I'm happy to pay a tiny premium to fly cathay pacific plus I might need to stopover in HK.

Options are

1. Buy now, risk $350 cancellation fee.

2. Wait for a lower price.

3. Wait until I know for sure whether I'm going and buy then.

I have done the (elementary) math on the general worthwhileness of buying an advance ticket, (.3*350=105) so the question is over whether the ticket price between now and when I know if I'm going is going to drop or rise and if any benefit of buying early is going to outweigh the risk of cancelling.

What it all hinges on and what I need to know from you guys is what kind of trends will we likely see over the next couple of months? Will airfares just rise continually in which case I should buy ASAP? Will they drop until a certain point at which I should buy? How likely am I to get a sale?

toddsci,

Ticket prices tend to rise across time. Tickets for any flights are segregated and sold according to different price buckets (also known as classes or inventories). As with most things, tickets with the lower prices get purchased first so over time the only fares available are the higher fares. As such ticket prices tend to rise across time.

What it all hinges on and what I need to know from you guys is what kind of trends will we likely see over the next couple of months?

Refer above.

Will airfares just rise continually in which case I should buy ASAP?

It is highly likely it will continue to rise. We of course cannot predict the future with any certainty. The airline may offer a sale, in which case prices will drop. 

Will they drop until a certain point at which I should buy?

Given the premise above, the assertion that prices will "drop until a certain point" is without merit. Assuming the general population behaves in a manner consistent with prior periods, there is no cause to believe that prices would drop across time. Of course if there was a disaster for the airline and people stopped purchasing their tickets, they could make a decision to cut prices. To predict accurately if such a scenario would occur would be to consult the crystal ball.

How likely am I to get a sale?

The best way to get that information is to hack the computer systems of the airline's marketing department. In the absence of such information, any talk of future sales is speculation and by definition uncertain.

Why not consider Korean Air/Asiana Airlines as they fly direct from Seoul to Sydney?

More expensive....

Toddsci, holding out for a better sale price is best aligned with flexible holiday plans. It sounds like you are going for a specific event however, and thus have little to no flexibility.

Generally speaking, fares rise the closer departure dates comes and the best month of the year for airfare sales is February (and late Nov/Early Dec).

The possibility there might be a discounted sale, covering your travel dates, over the forecoming months cannot be ruled out but the odds would not seem in your favour.