Skier (or whatever name you are using this week), there is virtually no chance that quarantine will be gone by Christmas. Given ongoing high degree of infection in US, India etc, the government has no choice but to continue with border restrictions and quarantine. An optimistic outcome would be a quarantine-free opening to NZ and Pacific Islands by Christmas but even that is a long way from certain. Originally it was hoped Singapore, Thailand etc would also be included in some sort of bubble but that appears less likely for the time being.
At the moment, the political cost of a second or third wave is assessed bu governments as being higher than the political cost of quarantine etc. Until this flips, the current situation will remain.
I agree with reeves35. Whether or not we agree with hotel quarantine, or want it to end, or think it should end ... it's not going to end any time soon.
I happen to agree that we can't keep closing things down. It's telling that the states with the highest unemployment rates are the states with the closed borders. But listen closely to what the politicians are saying, especially at Federal level. Despite what skier is saying, all the actual evidence, in the form of words from the people who will make the decisions in Australia, is that hotel quarantine is here to stay for the duration of 2020 at least.
Skier talks about "fact" and "opinion". Well, if skier can point to any indication (interview, press release, speech, press conference etc) from the PM, the Home Affairs Minister, the Health Minister, or any senior Border Force or Health Dept official that they're looking at ending hotel quarantine in 2020, I'm all ears. I certainly haven't found anything.
I'm genuinely sorry to say that I fear that skier's views are merely opinion, and poorly-informed ones at that.
Skier - yes of course Sibelius or Reeves are quoting words from politicians and civil servants.
Like it or lump it is they make the rules and you will be penalized if you disobey them.
The plan is basically hold tight until the vaccine is available. I do agree with others that the NSW-QLD border closure is political. At least when Greater Sydney was off limits as it was declared a hotspot seemed proportional.
I would love to be proved wrong. But until there is an effective vaccine or therapeutics, and while the virus rages overseas, there will be quarantine. Those medications could come through fairly quickly, they could take some years.
I also suspect that given the issues around compliance, doesn’t look likely that there’d be an easing on where people have to quarantine.
Also, suspect that we won’t see any meaningful international travel in 2021. Until then it will be very fraught and subject to last minute difficulties. As evidenced as Europe has reopened borders or those many examples of Y passengers stranded as airlines focus on premium cabins.
Very much hope I’m wrong. I’m sorry to hear the stories of other folks cut off from loved ones.
We live in Melbourne and have elderly parents in Perth who we are missing terribly. No sign of when we may get to see them - and I doubt it’ll be Christmas. Let’s hope I’m wrong - and I do hope that everyone gets to see their loved ones again soon.
Skier, you raise some good points but at this point I'm not nearly as optimistic as you are. I think domestic travel restrictions will still be in place, or at the very least, easing a little by Christmas, while quarantines on international arrivals will almost certainly still be around until at the least the beginning of 2021, when they might be replaced by home quarantines and then done away altogether sometime in the first half of the year, when the world starts to re-open. It's also possible that hotel quarantines will be replaced by freedom of movement from one day to the next, skipping home quarantine, but that's mere conjecture on my part.
That's my prediction at this stage but it could go in a totally different direction. Melbourne's lockdown, one of the world's harshest by far, is evidence that we can't take things for granted. Just 2-3 months ago I thought Australia was a pretty good place to be, no face mask mandates, no temperature checking in every public place you go, minimal use of tracking apps, but that's all changed since. Now there are fewer people wearing face masks in China than in Australia. All in the space of a few weeks.
GregXL
GregXL
Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer
Member since 26 May 2014
Total posts 320
Originally Posted by skier
greg xl
Think you might mean gatherings in Sept school holidays in Victoria might have to be on zoom.
A lot can change in 24 hours.
Skier, I'll check same time tomorrow.
reeves35
reeves35
Member since 24 Aug 2011
Total posts 83
Skier (or whatever name you are using this week), there is virtually no chance that quarantine will be gone by Christmas. Given ongoing high degree of infection in US, India etc, the government has no choice but to continue with border restrictions and quarantine. An optimistic outcome would be a quarantine-free opening to NZ and Pacific Islands by Christmas but even that is a long way from certain. Originally it was hoped Singapore, Thailand etc would also be included in some sort of bubble but that appears less likely for the time being.
At the moment, the political cost of a second or third wave is assessed bu governments as being higher than the political cost of quarantine etc. Until this flips, the current situation will remain.
regular flyer
regular flyer
Member since 13 May 2020
Total posts 31
Originally Posted by olliek57
The only thing i can think of as an alternative is over 55s "shield" and await priority doses of vaccine.
Under 55s get back to working and travelling, employing social distancing, mask wearing in public and good hand hygiene.
But then again, govt must have considered this option and discounted it for various reasons.
no over 70s shield including the vulnerable(sick like the obese/overweight, cancer sufferers, diabetics etc)Sibelius
Sibelius
Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards
Member since 06 Aug 2017
Total posts 181
I agree with reeves35. Whether or not we agree with hotel quarantine, or want it to end, or think it should end ... it's not going to end any time soon.
I happen to agree that we can't keep closing things down. It's telling that the states with the highest unemployment rates are the states with the closed borders. But listen closely to what the politicians are saying, especially at Federal level. Despite what skier is saying, all the actual evidence, in the form of words from the people who will make the decisions in Australia, is that hotel quarantine is here to stay for the duration of 2020 at least.
Skier talks about "fact" and "opinion". Well, if skier can point to any indication (interview, press release, speech, press conference etc) from the PM, the Home Affairs Minister, the Health Minister, or any senior Border Force or Health Dept official that they're looking at ending hotel quarantine in 2020, I'm all ears. I certainly haven't found anything.
I'm genuinely sorry to say that I fear that skier's views are merely opinion, and poorly-informed ones at that.
Antysyd
Antysyd
Virgin Australia - Velocity Rewards
Member since 18 Aug 2020
Total posts 2
At this stage domestic Christmas reunions are not even guaranteed.
If there is no domestic AU travel (maybe excluding VIC) in December/January then there will be two consequences:
- Qantas will be on the brink of administration and Virgin will be in liquidation
- There will be acts of civil disobedience on state borders, at airports and in front of state and federal members of parliament offices.
The closures of state borders - NSW with a total of 3 cases today - are completely out of proportion to the risks.
olliek57
olliek57
Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer
Member since 06 Jul 2018
Total posts 11
Skier - yes of course Sibelius or Reeves are quoting words from politicians and civil servants.
Like it or lump it is they make the rules and you will be penalized if you disobey them.
The plan is basically hold tight until the vaccine is available. I do agree with others that the NSW-QLD border closure is political. At least when Greater Sydney was off limits as it was declared a hotspot seemed proportional.
NBen
NBen
Member since 26 Oct 2017
Total posts 7
I would love to be proved wrong. But until there is an effective vaccine or therapeutics, and while the virus rages overseas, there will be quarantine. Those medications could come through fairly quickly, they could take some years.
I also suspect that given the issues around compliance, doesn’t look likely that there’d be an easing on where people have to quarantine.
Also, suspect that we won’t see any meaningful international travel in 2021. Until then it will be very fraught and subject to last minute difficulties. As evidenced as Europe has reopened borders or those many examples of Y passengers stranded as airlines focus on premium cabins.
Very much hope I’m wrong. I’m sorry to hear the stories of other folks cut off from loved ones.
We live in Melbourne and have elderly parents in Perth who we are missing terribly. No sign of when we may get to see them - and I doubt it’ll be Christmas. Let’s hope I’m wrong - and I do hope that everyone gets to see their loved ones again soon.
TheFreqFlyer
TheFreqFlyer
Member since 05 Oct 2017
Total posts 89
Skier, you raise some good points but at this point I'm not nearly as optimistic as you are. I think domestic travel restrictions will still be in place, or at the very least, easing a little by Christmas, while quarantines on international arrivals will almost certainly still be around until at the least the beginning of 2021, when they might be replaced by home quarantines and then done away altogether sometime in the first half of the year, when the world starts to re-open. It's also possible that hotel quarantines will be replaced by freedom of movement from one day to the next, skipping home quarantine, but that's mere conjecture on my part.
That's my prediction at this stage but it could go in a totally different direction. Melbourne's lockdown, one of the world's harshest by far, is evidence that we can't take things for granted. Just 2-3 months ago I thought Australia was a pretty good place to be, no face mask mandates, no temperature checking in every public place you go, minimal use of tracking apps, but that's all changed since. Now there are fewer people wearing face masks in China than in Australia. All in the space of a few weeks.