Would Qantas ever consider the A380 even IF!

Would Qantas ever consider the A380 even IF! Airbus launched the A380neo with 10-13% cost reduction?

Christopher,

The premise of your question is somewhat puzzling given that Qantas already operates the A380. A cost reduction would further add to its appeal. Was there perhaps a typo?

perhaps drop "ever" and "even"? If gives the question a different meaning when those two words are used.

Unless of course I'm missing something...

Even then, I still can't figure out what the question is asking. 

If the A380neo were cheaper would Qantas have bought the A380? No, they'd buy the A380neo.

Perhaps the question is: if the A380 became cheaper would Qantas buy more? And the answer is: maybe a few, to replace 747s? I don't think they're looking to hugely expand their international fleet at present. 

Yeah sorry, it was a bit of a confusing question, yeah I think the question is would Qantas ever be wanting any more A380s in the future even if Airbus launched the Neo version or the aircraft probably to much for Qantas even with a lower seat per mile cost. Would Qantas only use 787-9s to replace 747s? Or could they be waiting and seeing if there will be a Neo version and then convert the rest of the order to A380neos. 

I don't know why people bother speculating about these sorts of things. Aircraft buying decisions are based on whole spreadsheets full of numbers that we outside the organisations never get to see. There are well-paid people sitting around to analyse all those numbers.

We don't have the numbers and we don't get paid to look at 'em. 

Sorry I mean order the A380 again even if there was an A380neo. 

Thanks for clarifying Christopher.

I don't see why not. Question is will Airbus ever build it, given demand has been poor!

Well, I wouldnt say that a proposed order of 200 from Emirates is poor...

A good point Chris_PER. Given EK's operational mission to be the largest A380 fleet in the world, and the extent of their business, I think they could - on their own even - generate enough demand for a NEO project. And I'm sure a few piggyback orders from other carriers would round out the numbers. After all NEO projects are mostly about incremental upgrade (engine replacement mostly), not start from scratch, so it's more tempting for Airbus.

Emirates have been lobbying Airbus to build a stretched version for some time. They've dangled a ridiculous carrot although development costs are still quite significant.

The air travel market is growing significantly with population growth and developing markets. There will be a time in the not too distant future where it's no longer viable to run single aisle aircraft on busy corridors such as Melbourne to Sydney. Let alone some ultra busy asian markets.

As a business, I would not think it wise to be reliant on a single customer, particularly when a level of investment is required. Its poor risk management.

It's a volume game - you need X amount of aircraft to recoup your development costs (the A380 just broke even for example). EK could have that volume, and where else can they go. No-one uses the A380 like EK does (building it to a mainstay of it's fleet, to the point it will surpass it's 777-300ER numbers, of which it is the worlds largest operator too).

Any reluctance on Airbus' part is it prefers EK doesn't switch out it's 80 plus orders on the existing A380 to a NEO version (given the just recovered costs on the the original design - they want to score some easy profit first!). However, I think EK will get it's way eventually (80 orders is a big number given I don't think Airbus have cracked even 150 A380s in the air yet - it's was about 120 in service last May across all airlines)

Correction, Airbus have delivered 154 A380s according to the latest stats they have. 

And Emirates have 140 A380s on order according to the same stats