The half year results media release from Qantas includes : "The arrival of Qantas International’s first two Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft in late calendar 2017 enables the retirement of Qantas’ two oldest 747s by mid-2018. A total of five 747s will be retired as eight Dreamliners enter the fleet". Yes, this is consistent with what was said when the 787 purchase was announced and appears to counter speculation that at least the 3 younger 747s would stay in service longer.
What routes do people think will the 787s replace 5 oldest B747?
The big issue here is capacity, the 747s carry almost 50% more passengers (364 seats vs 236 on the Dreamliner). This is why Qantas can pull the 747 which runs only a few days a week off Melbourne-Los Angeles and replace with a daily 787. But a daily 747 service like Sydney-Tokyo is much harder because Qantas is immediately facing a 50% reduction in capacity, and I know from my flights to Tokyo this flight is very popular, very high load of passengers. It has dropped a bit since Qantas launched Brisbane-Tokyo and Melbourne-Tokyo, due to fewer connecting passengers into SYD, so maybe Qantas reckons it can risk a small hit and still get the 787 onto this route and run it 100% full.
What routes do people think will the 787s replace 5 oldest B747?
The big issue here is capacity, the 747s carry almost 50% more passengers (364 seats vs 236 on the Dreamliner). This is why Qantas can pull the 747 which runs only a few days a week off Melbourne-Los Angeles and replace with a daily 787. But a daily 747 service like Sydney-Tokyo is much harder because Qantas is immediately facing a 50% reduction in capacity, and I know from my flights to Tokyo this flight is very popular, very high load of passengers. It has dropped a bit since Qantas launched Brisbane-Tokyo and Melbourne-Tokyo, due to fewer connecting passengers into SYD, so maybe Qantas reckons it can risk a small hit and still get the 787 onto this route and run it 100% full.
Yes, I totally agree. I think if they do order more Dreamliners, I think they should have some high density ones that could replace the 747 completely in the long run.
I think it will be a little more complicated than straight 1:1 replacements of 747s with 787s. Somethings that could happen is a daily service becomes a 10 per week service. There could be shuffling of other aircraft around the network and so on.
I think also Qantas needs the 747-400ER's for the Santiago and Jo'burg routes due to current etops restrictions. At this stage, the 789s cannot replace these routes.
I think it will be a little more complicated than straight 1:1 replacements of 747s with 787s. Somethings that could happen is a daily service becomes a 10 per week service. There could be shuffling of other aircraft around the network and so on.
That's true but relies on landing spot availability which is restricted to a lot of popular destinations
What about A380s to Tokyo and Jo'burg? Tokyo I could see working, but not sure about Jo'burg. I do believe LATAM uses 789s between Sydney and Santiago so that won't be an issue. But the lower capacity will assist with increasing, or at least maintaining yield, so maybe that's the plan.
I can't see the economics of flying 3 x 744ERs staking up, so I'd say they'll go quick... or they should go quick. Perhaps to coincide with an order for a new larger twin?!
What ever happens, it's going to be a sad day when the Qantas stops flying the 747.
If QF do as the press releases say, they will keep the 6 x 744ERs, but retire the 5 older 744s as the 789s arrive. They don't need ERs (over 744s) for Santiago or Jo'burg, but they can't use a twin to Santiago due to CASA ruling. VA ran 777s to Jo'burg but I read that it added significantly to the distance flown to stay within the ETOPS rules. Given that the (minimum) 2 x 789s for MEL-PER-LHR don't contribute directly to reduced 747 utilisation, some other route changes are yet to be revealed.
Since the 4th 787 is arriving late February 2018 so they can implement the Perth-London service and Qantas plans to retire the 2 oldest 747s by mid 2018 they either must be doing some quite extensive network changes before the 5th arrives in FY19 or 1 or 2 787s might be delivered earlier than expected in the 4th quarter of FY18 rather than in FY19.
Last editedby Chris2304 at Feb 25, 2017, 02:35 PM.
HKG will go to a daily a380, QF011 on Tue will go back to an a380, these changes will be made possible by the a380 being removed from the MEL/DXB/LHR route, with these changes this could free up 2 older 747 for retirement. I also think eventually, the 787 will go on to SYD/SFO daily rotation.
What about A380s to Tokyo and Jo'burg? Tokyo I could see working, but not sure about Jo'burg. I do believe LATAM uses 789s between Sydney and Santiago so that won't be an issue. But the lower capacity will assist with increasing, or at least maintaining yield, so maybe that's the plan.
I can't see the economics of flying 3 x 744ERs staking up, so I'd say they'll go quick... or they should go quick. Perhaps to coincide with an order for a new larger twin?!
What ever happens, it's going to be a sad day when the Qantas stops flying the 747.
Haneda currently doesn't have capacity for A380s, and I wouldn't see it upgrade for A380 capacity in the future given the length of its runways. Two daily 789 flights would be more realistic for Tokyo from Sydney. They'd have to go back to Narita if they wanted to fly A380s to Tokyo.
As for JNB, it would make more sense to fly a 789 from Perth. Gotta have some other flight in addition to that new LHR service for the upgrades to make economic sense.
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Qantas Media Release and 747s
GregXL
GregXL
Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer
Member since 26 May 2014
Total posts 320
The half year results media release from Qantas includes : "The arrival of Qantas International’s first two Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft in late calendar 2017 enables the retirement of Qantas’ two oldest 747s by mid-2018. A total of five 747s will be retired as eight Dreamliners enter the fleet". Yes, this is consistent with what was said when the 787 purchase was announced and appears to counter speculation that at least the 3 younger 747s would stay in service longer.
Chris2304
Chris2304
Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer
Member since 10 Apr 2013
Total posts 167
What routes do people think will the 787s replace 5 oldest B747?
Mal
Mal
Member since 14 Jun 2013
Total posts 109
That Qantas statement this applies only to the 747-400s, not the long-range 747-400ER models.
Mal
Mal
Member since 14 Jun 2013
Total posts 109
The big issue here is capacity, the 747s carry almost 50% more passengers (364 seats vs 236 on the Dreamliner). This is why Qantas can pull the 747 which runs only a few days a week off Melbourne-Los Angeles and replace with a daily 787. But a daily 747 service like Sydney-Tokyo is much harder because Qantas is immediately facing a 50% reduction in capacity, and I know from my flights to Tokyo this flight is very popular, very high load of passengers. It has dropped a bit since Qantas launched Brisbane-Tokyo and Melbourne-Tokyo, due to fewer connecting passengers into SYD, so maybe Qantas reckons it can risk a small hit and still get the 787 onto this route and run it 100% full.
Packetman21
Packetman21
Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer
Member since 28 Jul 2016
Total posts 68
The big issue here is capacity, the 747s carry almost 50% more passengers (364 seats vs 236 on the Dreamliner). This is why Qantas can pull the 747 which runs only a few days a week off Melbourne-Los Angeles and replace with a daily 787. But a daily 747 service like Sydney-Tokyo is much harder because Qantas is immediately facing a 50% reduction in capacity, and I know from my flights to Tokyo this flight is very popular, very high load of passengers. It has dropped a bit since Qantas launched Brisbane-Tokyo and Melbourne-Tokyo, due to fewer connecting passengers into SYD, so maybe Qantas reckons it can risk a small hit and still get the 787 onto this route and run it 100% full.
Yes, I totally agree. I think if they do order more Dreamliners, I think they should have some high density ones that could replace the 747 completely in the long run.
brinkers
brinkers
Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer
Member since 16 Jun 2011
Total posts 233
I think it will be a little more complicated than straight 1:1 replacements of 747s with 787s. Somethings that could happen is a daily service becomes a 10 per week service. There could be shuffling of other aircraft around the network and so on.
devilish
devilish
Member since 06 Jan 2015
Total posts 23
I think also Qantas needs the 747-400ER's for the Santiago and Jo'burg routes due to current etops restrictions. At this stage, the 789s cannot replace these routes.
ajstubbs
ajstubbs
Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer
Member since 15 Mar 2016
Total posts 117
Jazzop
Jazzop
Member since 02 Dec 2016
Total posts 124
What about A380s to Tokyo and Jo'burg? Tokyo I could see working, but not sure about Jo'burg. I do believe LATAM uses 789s between Sydney and Santiago so that won't be an issue. But the lower capacity will assist with increasing, or at least maintaining yield, so maybe that's the plan.
I can't see the economics of flying 3 x 744ERs staking up, so I'd say they'll go quick... or they should go quick. Perhaps to coincide with an order for a new larger twin?!
What ever happens, it's going to be a sad day when the Qantas stops flying the 747.
GregXL
GregXL
Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer
Member since 26 May 2014
Total posts 320
If QF do as the press releases say, they will keep the 6 x 744ERs, but retire the 5 older 744s as the 789s arrive. They don't need ERs (over 744s) for Santiago or Jo'burg, but they can't use a twin to Santiago due to CASA ruling. VA ran 777s to Jo'burg but I read that it added significantly to the distance flown to stay within the ETOPS rules. Given that the (minimum) 2 x 789s for MEL-PER-LHR don't contribute directly to reduced 747 utilisation, some other route changes are yet to be revealed.
Chris2304
Chris2304
Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer
Member since 10 Apr 2013
Total posts 167
Since the 4th 787 is arriving late February 2018 so they can implement the Perth-London service and Qantas plans to retire the 2 oldest 747s by mid 2018 they either must be doing some quite extensive network changes before the 5th arrives in FY19 or 1 or 2 787s might be delivered earlier than expected in the 4th quarter of FY18 rather than in FY19.
Litto
Litto
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Member since 14 Jul 2016
Total posts 3
simiguelito47
simiguelito47
Asiana Airlines - Asiana Club
Member since 09 Feb 2017
Total posts 6
I can't see the economics of flying 3 x 744ERs staking up, so I'd say they'll go quick... or they should go quick. Perhaps to coincide with an order for a new larger twin?!
What ever happens, it's going to be a sad day when the Qantas stops flying the 747.