Qantas flights to Johannesburg after Boeing 747s are retired

Hi,

What aircraft are Qantas going to use on the Sydney to Johannesburg route after the Boeing 747s are retired?

It will be a 789 later this year but there is a chance they may use an A350-1000 to capetown but that will be a few years down the track 2025 or so, and could replace jo'burg.

I Would have thought the b789 would be able to make it to Cape Town (since it can do Perth to london). Why would they need to wait to the A350 comes? The main hurdle I understand is etops?

Capetown is on the A350-1000 list. So they may shift the 789 there if it's not too far. ETOPS has been sorted for South America so presume South Africa is a formality.

Also another question, will Qantas order more Boeing 787-9 aircraft?

My suspicion will be the current order of 14 long range 789s, then three Jetstar 788s to boost regional routes and free up 789s for South Africa and South America, then I suspect 78-10s to replace A333s from 2025 or so after the A350-1000s, Then 788s for the A322s, but it is just as likely 789s without premium economy for regional routes. They have purchase rights on another 25 787s so they will use them all up I suspect. Jetstar may also move more to A320XLRs thus freeing more 787s for QF. I think Qantas has a very good price on its purchase rights as they go back nearly 15 years.

Significant reduction in capacity 7x789 V 6 x 747. I fly the route on a fairly regular basis and the aircraft always appear to be full.

a couple of options - 1] 4

Significant reduction in capacity 7x789 V 6 x 747. I fly the route on a fairly regular basis and the aircraft always appear to be full. A couple of options - 1] 4xA380 and 3x A330 via Per. 2] 7x789 and 3xA330 via Per. This would be subject to QF reaching and agreement with Perth airport.

The other option is to add daily 789 to Jo'Burg and three or four 789 a week to Capetown as it seems the 789 has the legs. The three 788s from Jetstar could free up enough 789s to make it happen. Not sure they have any spare A380 capacity but when they are all refurbished later in the year they may have a spare one to make it happen.

QF quietly didn't get CASA approval on their A330s ETOPS to do Perth to Jnb despite Perth airport saying no...Something about history of their maintenance and issues of the aircraft not meeting requirements to fly that long.

Personally I doubt QF would ever do Cape Town, let alone on an A350..high density premium cabin with First Class on a route like that doesn't seem viable.

Dan they specifically mentioned it in their promo material, so they must think from their connections history that folk go there in enough numbers. Interesting your comment about CASA and A330 ETOPS.

@patrickk - I'm sure we've all been around long enough to experience airlines stating one thing and then not doing it. Indeed Qantas does that well. While I'd love to see QF fly to Cape Town, given they have only indicated they might buy (I think) 12 aircraft, they simply do not have the fleet to fly all the possible routes suggested for project sunrise.

I agree but they may use 789s for some capetown flights. In the end I can see 25-30 A350-1000s in total to cover the departure of the A380s. What they are not telling us is the number of options and purchase rights beyond the dozen A350s. I think they will lock them in now like they did with the 787s subject to the price being right of course.

Logically I agree, a 787 makes more sense... but I think my point is that I wouldn't place much weight on what QF suggests its destinations will be, until they actually announce a launch date.

The issue with these types of questions is that nobody actually knows! We just get out our crystal balls and then try and back up our opinion. Sometimes the questions are genuine (ie I am concerned about a plane swap), but this OP seems to asking the same question for multiple destinations or as above, asking whether QF will buy more 787's... Who knows??? If anyone has AJ's direct phone number, I'd be happy to give him a call to ask.