Will the qantas 787 be used for Asian flights.

51 replies

Chris2304

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 10 Apr 2013

Total posts 167

i dont think the ER 747s will be around to the late 2020s, they will either be replaced by B777-9 or 787-9s earlier than that

FLX1

Member since 31 Mar 2016

Total posts 37

"i dont the ER 747s will be around to the late 2020s"

100% agree.  I predict 744ER will leave QF fleet around 2025 or earlier.  Exactly when before 2025 will largely depend on CASA re ETOPS rules relaxation(So QF can swap 744ER for 789 re  JNB+SCL).  By 2025, oldest frame will be 23yrs old.  Even if oil will stay cheap till that point, maintenance will become very tough because unlike today, few 747s will be in service worldwide by that time along with its dwindling parts+maintenance network.  Regardless of QF engineering somehow will manage a miracle to keep them flying beyond 2025, dispatch reliability will start to become a nightmare....normal for any 23yrs+ old widebody airframe.

"...will either be replaced by B777-9 or..."

789 much more likely than 779.  1st of all, I think QF all along bought the 744ER for its range(+freedom outside ETOPS), not really for its seat count.  This is especially true for mkts like JNB+SCL where 789 is a much more appropriate gauge than 779(Essentially the same size as a 744).  2ndly, I'm beginning to believe QF future fleet strategy re any new type is pivoting towards gauge size of no more than 300-350seats(3-class nominal)....well below the level on a 779.  In contrast, the 778(No more than 350seats) has a better chance to join QF fleet in the future as AJ himself mentioned a few times in public about how this variant may fit into QF future network.

Chris2304

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 10 Apr 2013

Total posts 167

 
So you think only the A380s will eventually be replaced by B777-9s.
B747s to be replaced with a combination of B789 and B778 and growth. 
A330 to be replaced by 787-10s or a mix of 787-9s and 10s. 

FLX1

Member since 31 Mar 2016

Total posts 37

"So you think only the A380s will eventually be replaced by B777-9s."

Nope, I don't know and neither does QF simply because it's just too early to tell.  As I've mentioned earlier, the oldest 380 frame @ QF is under 8yrs old today.  I est. that's roughly only 1/3 thru its econ useful life in QF fleet.  Airlines typically(And logically) won't start to plan replacement for a frame 13-14yrs in advance.  Think about it: even QF itself was a completely diff animal 13-14yrs ago.

"B747 to be replaced with a combination of B789..."

This is not what I think but is what QF has actually planned(And clearly communicated to the public) to do starting fm around late 2017.

"and 778..."

Uncertain @ this point but a disticnt possibility due to Joyce's comment specifically re this type.  In any case, I believe the main justification to invest in 778 will be for ULH routes never before tried by QF(i.e. pure growth) so logically, 778 won't really/directly be replacing any current 747 capacity @ QF.  If config with about 300seats(Joyce did implied this seat count on a hypothetical QF 778 as optimal), SYD-JFK/LHR will technically be within reach of a 778.  Those EK/DXB haters & QF lovers here will be very happy if QF choose this future strategy to add a few non-EK options into its intercon network.....

FLX1

Member since 31 Mar 2016

Total posts 37

"A330 to be replaced by 787-10 or a mix of 787-9s and 10s".

Uncertain about only 78J replacing 330 but yes, I predict @ QF, all or most 330 Int'l routes today will most likely become 789(Plus may be 78J) routes within 5-7yrs.

The 789 will be able to lift a whole lot more Rev$ belly cargo(Think Aussie beef+seafood+wine export) to Asia than the 330 has ever managed.

kimshep

Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer

Member since 11 Oct 2014

Total posts 412

"... and maybe Germany, Italy and France (pending changes to mainland France air service agreement which currently would only allow 5 flights a week with 787 sized aircraft)".

I may be mistaken, but as far as I know the EK-QF JVA precludes QF from competing with EK on European services. It's part of the reason that QF has not re-opened SIN-LHR-SIN services.

Germany may be the only point of possible 'exemption' where EK would agree to allow QF to operate, given QF hold existing rights into Germany and one other city, where EK has now fullfilled its allowance of available German cities.

But I would not be expecting to see a QF mainline aircraft to be seen in France, Italy, Netherlands or anywhere in Western Europe during the mid term.

FLX1

Member since 31 Mar 2016

Total posts 37

"...EK-QF JVA precludes QF from competing with EK on European services.  It's part of the reason that QF has not re-opened SIN-LHR..."

Even if that JV has no such terms to restrict QF to open other routes to Europe, there's simply no econ justification for QF to restart AU-SIN-LHR/FRA.  Fm DXB hub, a QF pax fm AU on the same ticket can connect nonstop to 39 Euro destinations(I'm not even counting Mid-East and Africa).  If fm SIN hub, that QF ticket holder will hv a choice of no more than 2-3 nonstop Euro routes on QF or OneWorld metals and @ best may be 5-6  more via EU partners in *A or SkyTeam.  Quantum diff for QF in terms of mkt coverage potential DXB vs SIN.  Also, why split your costly transit handling services/resources between SIN and DXB when U can concentrate all in DXB and enjoy larger op scale?

Bottom line:  QF would hv never entered into a JV with EK if SIN works out as a better hub for them than DXB.

"...would not be expecting to see a QF mainline aircraft to be seen in France, Italy, Netherlands or anywhere in Western Europe during the mid term."

And I dare say even for the longterm.  Aside fm national pride or nostalgia(Costly things in today's mkt environment), there's no econ justification for QF to do such flights anymore(Actually since a decade ago) and it's the same reason why BA only show up in SYD but nowhere else in AU anymore unlike decades ago......and carriers from France, Italy, Netherlands or anywhere in W.Europe hv completely vanished in AU airports a long time ago.

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