Points Upgrade Waitlist on Virgin Australia--clearing chances?

Hi All,

I'm a VA Platinum heading down to BNE from LAX on VA8 in about a week on a W fare. I've got a points supported upgrade to business waitlisted, and I was wondering what all your thoughts were on my chances of clearing. My final destination is CBR, so I can also change my ticket to connect through SYD or MEL if that improves my chances. Availability on my day of travel looks like this:

VA8 (my flight): J7 C7 W4 Y7 B7 H7 K7 L7 E7

VA24 (alternate flight to MEL): J4 C2 W7 Y7 B7 H7 K7 L2 E1 N1

VA2 (alternate flight to SYD): J7 C7 D6 I6 W7 R6 O3 Y7 B7 H7 K7 L7 E7 N7 V7

FWIW I know upgrades can be pretty sparse this time of year. I wasn't really expecting it but I've gotten the UpgradeMe offers so I thought I would ask for some input--any ideas for strategy would be greatly appreciated!

I don't know much about Virgin, but the

J4 in MEL would suggest the chances in MEL would probably be lower with only at least 4 seats available for purchase vs at least 7 on VA8 and VA2.

There seems to be more fare buckets on the flight to SYD for Business seats and lower loads in Premium Economy than on the flight to BNE.

Upgrades are lottery. I'm not sure I'd spend the money to change flights even if you think it'll improve your chances.

Have you had a look at the seat map on your day of travel for VA8 and VA2 in J? This'll tell you which seats have been selected. Probably most people in J will have chosen their seat (but some may not have).

I recently was on a points upgrade waitlist business was sold out though so I thought my chances were slim from Aukland to Brisbane (so only 8 seats in Business) as VA Gold never got the upgrade despite there being two spare seats available when we took off.

Thanks for the feedback to both of you--that was really helpful! Despite carefully watching the flight and looking for award seats, the upgrade did fail to clear. I stayed on VA8 and it went out with at least 5 J seats empty. Peak time seems to really drain the chances I suppose, although I've been seeing sparse award availability for a few flights within a few days of mine. I'm all for protecting the integrity of the cabin, but I don't feel particularly rewarded for my loyalty if I can't even clear the waitlist as a Plat on a Premium Flexi fare when there are seats available. Still waiting for the revamped platinum benefits as it's been about a year and a half of 'watch this space,' Messrs. Schuster and Borghetti.

Yes agree with the integrity but I do believe the integrity of the cabin is somewhat protected by the fact only gold and plat can upgrade and only from flex economy and up. Plus gold and plat already have many of the benefits like priority and lounges access.