Should Qantas fly to Seattle?

Hi All,

In my opinion, if you were going to introduce a tag flight, ORD would be a better choice. i.e. Direct to SEA and tag flights to ORD, rather than what you've suggested.

I am not sure QF is a fan of tag flights. The exceptions are New York and London and each of these is fed by around three incoming flights in LA and Singapore respectively. These are slated for non stop in five years or so anyway. The joint venture makes it even less likely. I suspect Syd to Seattle is on the cards in the mid term. Rumours are AA will upscale the Sydney flight to a 777 and introduce a 787 to Mel DFW at which time QF will move SYD to DFW to a daily 789. If they base some 789s in Sydney then they need another route so Seattle may come in play. The issue is not to add too much capacity (total seats) to the US if they can’t be all filled and They can’t count on poaching too many seats from competitors given how loyalty programs work.

I don’t think Qantas would do 2 west coast USA tag flights. Direct Qantas - Seattle flights will come eventually I think. I’m hoping for BNE, but I think SYD or MEL will get it first.

I hope there's a return to American Airlines domestic first class being treated as first class for the purposes of Qantas status credits.

American domestic first class is the same as Oz business class. The earnings rate will be the same. I noticed on a AA 1 hour domestic leg last week I got the same SCs as a similar distance fight in Oz so the JV May have prompted some generosity as last year it was very meagre.

I think Qantas should consider Seattle as a destination in its own right but not as a tag flight, and I don't know that AA would have much to do with a Seattle route as it's an end-point flight and not somewhere you make a connection from, and if you did connect it'd probably be with Alaska to fly into Canada.

I don't see the benefit of a tag flight when there is the option of a non-stop and the market for it. I suspect we may see Seattle launched at some point.

Regarding the tag flight does any one know whether Chicago international immigration and customs is bearable or has some of the delays known at LAX? A tag flight would force immigration and customs in Seattle so a delay over a non stop flight to Chicago. Just wonder whether the convenience of a domestic arrival into Chicago makes up for some of it?

1. I think the possibility of a tag-on to SEA (Seattle) from either LAX or SFO (Los Angeles, San Francisco) on QF flights ex Australia would be low to non-existent. Far more efficient to use partner carriers such as Alaska Airlines (AK) for short stop tags. Remember, whilst most QF flights to the USA sit on the ground for a number of hours, this time is usually occupied by carrying out maintenance particularly in LAX.

2. Seattle (SEA) as a non-stop ex Australia. Would be a good contender, eventually. However, this is dependant on a number of factors including the origin point ex Australia, how QF's plans for further fleet acquisition proceeds, how the QF / AA Joint Venture approval (granted formally last Friday) pans out.

3. AA (American Airlines) is somewhat weak in Seattle. As a market, it is dominated by AS and DL (Alaska and Delta), so feeds to / from SEA are existent but weaker for AA. This is where AS excels as a QF partner.

4. Despite much of the anticipation of the JV, AA's CEO's previous comments tend to indicate that much of the heavy lifting across the (South) Pacific will probably be done by QF. AA's current management is conservative when it comes to launching new international Pacific routes.

5. For QF, SEA could be highly profitable (particularly ex SYD) for nonstops ex Australia, given the heavy emphasis on J Class (Business) on the B787-9. SEA has the potential to be both a lucrative business market and a successful O&D market. Companies such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon etc are generally headquartered in SYD for their Australian operations and there is significant business travel to SEA from here. Some of these tech monoliths also have offices in BNE and MEL also. Microsoft is globally headquartered in SEA and whilst Boeing is technically headquartered in ORD (Chicago), it's scale of operation in SEA is more than significant.

As a tourist destination, SEA also has much to recommend it as one of America's 'tier 1' cities.

However, launching non-stops to SEA will take QF some time. It would need to build market awareness in Australia, have sufficient fleet to do so, build out connections with AA / AS etc. Personally, I would imagine that this would take some 12-18 months minimum before / if it happens. The good thing though, is that QF management clearly is aware of the market potential and seems to have it's eye on market expansion. Bring it on, I say.

They should consider it as a destination in its own right. While I’m excited for the ORD flight, most of my US work is in Idaho, and Seattle is the best stopover option - poor options from SFO and will actively avoid LAX.

AA won’t like QF codeshares with Alaska from Seattle to the US but it will work perfectly with Alaska codeshares to Canada. I wonder if the joint venture will consider codeshares from Honolulu to US East Coast to provide even length sectors for those who like a mid way ‘leg stretch’. The connections would have to work though.

As someone based in Seattle and flying biz regularly, my request to qantas would be: pls pls pls avoid the 11am - 2pm window (arrival and departure) as seatac is already suffering from over usage