Australia-New Zealand travel not until March 2021 or later

Its not about Australia/NZ travel bubble, its about Australia, NZ and South Pacific Island travel bubble. Whilst Australia has ongoing community transmissions, travel boarders between NZ and Australia can't open, as NZ is the staging point for South Pacific islands which are currently COVID19 free. Most smaller South Pacific island nations don't have the health infrastructure to cope with a COVID19 outbreak.

There is no guarantee that a vaccine will be effective for all people, factor in the time it will take to roll out a vaccine globally and how many people will refuse vaccination. Epidemiologists and virologist are now seeing more cases of SARS-cov-2 virus having incubation periods up to 28 Days, which has happened in NZ recently at the boarder.

New Zealand didn't open or outline any real strategy to open their borders* to any of the Covid-free Pacific nations during their 100+ days of also being Covid free despite repeated requests verging on begging from many of those Pacific islands that are being crushed into the dirt economically.

Nor was there or has there been any meaningful discussion about how to do so between Covid-free states in Australia and NZ, even though it was suggested the bubble could go forward on a state by state basis.

All this suggests is that neither country is prepared or willing to start having real conversations about how to live with this virus, presumably because both are continuing to put all their eggs in the vaccine basket.

As much as I hope they're right about that vaccine, I'd rather they start preparing meaningfully to be wrong. 

There are plans in place for boarder free travel between Australia and NZ but the problem is, Australia has a 'federal' style of government where states make their decisions and NZ has 'central' style of government, makes it harder to establish a Australia/NZ travel bubble. from NZ's point of view, Australia as a country, needs to have 28 days of no new community transmissions for a travel bubble to work. Both prime ministers have regular discussions on a travel bubble but any discussions on have an open COV19 free boarder is still some time away.

Ted have you kept track of Sweden’s daily cases: ten times that of Australia with half of the population and the same social restrictions as most of Australia such as SA, WA, Qld, NT and ACT, and parts of NSW. Have fun when you get there.

And yet, deaths at or nearly zero every day.

Almost as if they've realised that by protecting the most vulnerable they can save lives while realistically accepting that this virus is not going away. 

Flying most of Australia has zero or near zero deaths every day. So most of Australia agrees but with 1/20th of the cases and therefore health impact. Obsessing about deaths hides the chronic conditions that go with COVID so 20 times Sweden’s ‘success’ rate sounds good to me.

Pleased for you mate; glad this strategy works for you.

As someone whose family and ageing parents are on the other side of the world, it doesn’t for me. 

We all have to make decisions and balance the risks. However the Australian government refuses to allow grown adults to do that on our own. This black and white approach just doesn’t reflect the grey reality.

Flying I fully agree with you on being able to leave. Balancing the risks is what it is about and you should be able to do it elsewhere as much as here.

Ted I see today Sweden has had 1200 cases and five deaths since Friday and talking of increasing restrictions in Stockholm. A bit like Melbourne perhaps.

GoRobin it is not about deaths it is about chronic illnesses due to a very infectious disease and the strain on the health system. This is in a country with much the same restrictions as much of Australia (social distancing limits on crowds etc.) , with a 1/20th per capita daily infection rate. Yes Sweden may move on very well but Australia seems to be moving on better.

Hi, Swedish-Australian here, so colour me biased but I'm going to point out two big points here:

1) In Sweden, the so-called "restrictions" you're referring to are recommendations. The few limits that exist as "rules" pertain only to major social gatherings. Sure, Swedes as a whole follow those recommendations, but the difference between a "restriction" that can be criminally enforced versus a recommendation matters. In one country, you have free agency to make decisions; in the other, you can be arrested for doing so. 

2) Sweden's borders are open, both internally and internationally. If you live in a state or territory in Australia and your entire life and family exists in that bubble (or within a 5-km radius in the case of Melbourne), great; otherwise, the importance of this difference cannot be overstated.

3) Swedes are treated like adults. The claim in Australia that Australians have to be treated like children because they act like children doesn't hold any water; plenty of Swedes refuse to follow those recommendations and they pose a risk to the strategy. Still, the government accepts that total compliance isn't possible and works to mitigate that risk, rather than try to eliminate it, as elimination of risk isn't possible... much like the virus itself. 

Flying where I am in Australia there is negligible policing (and no shortage of crowded bars etc) as there have been no cases in three months and I think that observation applies to most of Australia. If needed the policing will ramp up. In the part of Australia I live in I can go to four states or territories, covering geographically most of Australia so for me the bubble is quite big. My point is there is a bit of generalising and hyperbole happening here.

That’s nice for you; must be nice to have those options. 

It’s not the case for many of us, however, in which case the consequences are hardly hyperbolic. However, I can imagine that for someone in your position who isn’t living through them, perhaps they seem so. 

I lived through them three months ago, and happy to do so again if need be, just to correct the record, as did the rest of the country. My point is that it isn’t nation wide at the moment (more city wide) which what my reference to hyperbole was about.

Patrick deaths and chronic illness in the under 60 category is what counts. You cannot stop and mortgage peoples/countries futures to protect the old and weak. You need to understand the big picture and stop trying to justify rediculous restrictions as being the solution. Just stay home if you dont like it and let the rest of us get on with our lives.

P so for the over 60s are you suggesting some way to recognise them, say a sign they have to wear. Maybe special accommodation for them. Quite a logistical job for 20% of the population, but hang on it has been tried before.

I think people know their own age and health status. We don't need legislation or rules made by bureaucrats and politicians to tell us how to live. Responsibilities of politicians, press and scientific community is to make recommendations but let individuals make their own decisions always provided they dont intentionally or recklessly put others at risk.

P I think you answered your own question. Most outbreaks are due to unintentional actions. How you deal with them without regulations as their unintended actions lead to the rest of us getting sick regardless of age.

 GoRobin - Its not about deaths as the SARS-cov-2 virus is no a killer virus and like with other respiratory viruses, it is a disruptive virus that disrupts lives, businesses, overloads health care infrastructure and a country's economy due to its long incubation period between 4-28 days and is infectious without its human host showing any systems, which makes establishing travel bubbles difficult.

Go Robin there is no shortage of data on COVID chronic effects: here is one from the college of GPs, google will find you many more.

 GoRobin - There is going evidence there that are people who have recovered from a SARS-cov-2 infection are having on going health effects like respiratory issues, fatigue, incidents long term loss of smell and/or taste, etc. 

Fully agree on all counts...

Go Robin the link I sent is to medical evidence and The Lancet has no shortage of peer reviewed studies. Straws are being clutched methinks.

GoRobin the bugs infection may not be long term but the effects certainly are. This is according to medical experts not newspaper headlines.

Hi Eac - agree on all counts.

Here in the UK they have started paying people to be tested, so determined are they to get those numbers up - they have to support the spin and justify their new rules that will last 6 months. Apparently the virus suddenly becomes dangerous in  a pub after 10 pm. It can't spread between 6 people but definitely can if there are 7. A piece of fabric strapped across your mouth (that you have touched and worn days in a row) stops the virus in it's tracks of course...

Social media has become a minefield. You have people turning on each other - citing those "stupid people" who wont obey the rules and it's all their fault, or the "stupid people" who don't realise this is a hoax and are going along blindly - camps at both extremes are angry and resentful. To me, that is the worst thing that has come out of this. I caught a cab the other day and the driver spent the twenty minutes ranting about the idiots who wont obey the rules or wear masks or stay home,  and he wishes we were more like China because at least they weld people into their houses if they don't behave. The next day, he wasn't able to pick me up so he sent his mate - his mate said to me when I jumped in the car "I'm not wearing  a mask, I don't like them" and then proceeded to rave about how stupid the rules are. It's like everyone has to state their position for the record and it's hard not to feel the aggression.

Victoria's new legislation giving police extra powers to arrest you without charge and detain you without cause should set alarm bells ringing for everyone. So should WA's forced injection clause where they  have the power to physically detain an unwilling person and inject them if it is deemed for their or the community's, benefit. It is easy to feel as though Australians are suddenly waking up to find themselves on the wrong side of the Berlin wall. 

A friend of mine recently visited Portugal from the UK - announced the day before he left that it will be kept on the safe  list and so he would not have to quarantine when he returned (as he cannot afford a further 2 weeks off work he was ready to cancel the trip if they have done otherwise). Two days in, they changed their mind and mandated two weeks isolation upon return - at least it is not forced hotel quarantine like Australia, but still.

Many I speak to are now feeling the inconsistency of all of this and it is amazing how many people are starting to doubt that there even is a virus, or certainly that it poses the dangers they have been claiming. So those who are not angry, are unsettled and mistrustful. The determination of governments to bring their economies to their knees is extraordinary. 

I agree we are not to accept living in a cage, but there are many who will line up for the vaccine as their savior when it comes as they are so desperate to get out of their houses and worn down by restrictions and economic stress - and the vaccine has been rushed, not properly tested, the companies making it have been granted no liability for adverse reaction or injury - so I'm not sure that isn't just another kind of cage. They need to learn to live with the virus and those who feel unsafe can choose to remain out of society. But I think they call  that personal responsibility and that doesnt seem to be popular.

Hi Matlilda full agree particularly on personal responsibility not being popular as demostated y so many people not being personally responsible and pass the bug onto others. then a lockdowns etc. Sydney taxi driver drove fro 8 days while positive. Now that is an issue of a complete lack of personal responsibility.  As for vaccines I will only take one that has been properly tested and there are a few stage three trials with thousands of people over six months. So not sure which vaccine you suggest as been rushed (and I am sure there are some) but I certainly wont be taking it.

Hi Patrick,

The Astra Zeneca trials (the Oxford vaccine) have bypassed the animal testing stage (and dont get me wrong, I HATE the whole concept of animal testing but still) - that is something that has not been bypassed before. They  went straight to human trials and legislation allowing it to be rushed through has been passed, which is why we are at stage 3 trials now. The usual period of vaccine development is a decade or so, and while I realise that they are working on previous work regarding other SARS viruses, the point remains. That is the vaccine that the Australian government has specifically applied for. Pharma companies have also been given immunity from any liability regarding adverse reaction or injury from their vaccines. Just saying. 

 I dont like vaccines, I think they make healthy people sick and not the other way around but I can take a position of responsibility regarding my health - for example, I fell on some blue metal  and had to have it removed at the hospital and be stitched up, a tetanus shot was offered and given. For me, the risk of tetanus at that time outweighed my concern about a vaccine and it was perfectly reasonable to get it. But at any other time I dont see the point in a tetanus shot if Im at no or low risk of tetanus. The problem I have with this covid vaccine is that those who are not at risk or don't want it may still be made/bullied to have it. There is an emotional  element to it I am wary of - people being so worn down they will accept anything and if they don't their life will be made difficult.

The statistics dont support this lock down. The virus has a 99% recovery rate. Even if you are worried about certain citizens causing problems (like your taxi driver you mentioned), none of it justifies the extreme measures we have seen so far, especially in Victoria. That is just my opinion but it happens that it is also the opinions of several medical and legal professionals as well as one prominent economist who just resigned so he could speak freely on the issue. This started as two weeks, and here we all still are. 

Anyway, sorry if this came over as a rant - not intentional, i just take a long time explaining myself. 

Matilda  not sure your definition of recovery is. Do it mean a lack of deaths and 1-3% (is more accurate) is still a lot of people on 1,000 per day. But an awful lot more have longer term chronic effects: here . Could be 10-20%. Economists are not the best on chronic illnesses and what they do to economies.  The issue with with UK where you are is that Boris dithered and continues to dither and so there are more and more lockdows, while here is Australia there is only one (in one city) at the moment. The SE Qld one was lifted in the last few days. Much prefer 10s of cases per day than thousands, and happy to be locked down if there as spurt in cases where I am. . As you said the animal trials for Astra Zeneca happened some time back, but that is one: the Qld Uni has had animal trials, and they are all based on more than 10 years research already completed. As for vaccines I regularly line up and the flu vaccine for me has worked (no bronchitis complications in years) and brought up on farm tetanus shots go without saying as lockjaw is not the best disease to get, nor is whooping cough another favorite of the anti vaccers.

Ah well, have to say I'll take a good dose of whooping cough at the right age than the vaccine any day, but that is just me. Have the disease between 2 and 10 yrs and you are generally ok. I did however, have chicken pox when I was 35 - that  wasn't fun, sickest I've ever been in my life. Childhood diseases are best contracted in childhood....

I was citing Australian news (I am an Aussie) actually - of course economists are not authorities on infectious diseases, but the guy who worked for the Victorian department of Finance and Treasury is not an idiot and had some  excellent observations on the statistics available, and all related to the financial fallout. I'm sure you'd be aware that several QC's and barristers have spoken their objections to Dan Andrews' new legislation regarding police power (and actually, I don't think they  even have to BE police to arrest you, the way it is worded). So I wasn't implying they were disease experts, just that in their legal capacity they are alarmed at the drastic measures as well they should be. 

In the Uk  Boris has pontificated and dithered like nothing else - I expected more of him than to lock everyone down and panic but then the place has had its share of deaths. Maybe I am harsh but I don't think 90 year old's dying in nursing homes is particularly newsworthy, and the general public have accepted that the death rates have been largely inflated anyway (as in, people dying with Covid rather than of it). UK is regrettably a small land mass with a huge population so it isnt the same as Australia in any way. Plus, Australians like being told what to do way more than the Brits which is what is giving Boris a hard time now.

Are Australia's interstate borders not still closed? I was under the impression they were. If they are closed, Im not sure I would consider that only one lock down - that is a whole bunch of lock down. My husband tells me life feels normal until you think about leaving the state....

None of which is directly on topic to  the article title and if we keep rabitting on like this we will be cautioned for being off topic. I'm out, its after midnight here. G'night.

Matilda I can now travel to fours states and territories covering most of the country. WA and Tassie are still a no no and regional Victoria next week or the week after I think. Lockdown can be state of mind but being able to go to most the place is fine by me, ad full agree with the police powers the the state premiers including Gladdys are giving to their cops being over the top. Not to mention border forces powers. The issue is not of 90 year old dieing in nursing home but the federal government neglect on that is close to criminal; it is 30 year olds on ventilators (who recover 'sort of') that wreck economies.

Morning Patrick - interesting, I hadn't realised other state borders were open as I'm a bit behind the Aussie times here. My husband is currently working in Tasmania and I have a daughter in Melbourne so obviously the filtered news I'm getting from them is a little dismal. 

Tasmania do tend to think of themselves as a country independent of everyone else (which they are not, clearly - the rest of Australia has always carried them economically) I  was never surprised that they remain closed. The commentary from the locals would be of support too - they have always had an island mentality and would probably believe there would be no covid there if not for "those bloody mainlanders", so there will be no public push from the inside to open up I wouldn't think.