Post-coronavirus, 'normal' travel may not resume until 2023

Dependent, of course, on the price people are willing to pay for that.

People who fly First Class now probably do it regardless of the high cost, and that is likely to continue.

I agree, patrickk - apart from our own personal risk assessments, insurance coverage will (justifiably) have a major role to play in when and how quickly travel returns to 'normal'. That said, as much as I miss certain aspects of travel, and the freedom to engage therein at will, I am quite enjoying the excuse to remain in situ - whilst being horrified at the direct and indirect suffering caused by this pandemic.

It could be Patrick, though I hope it won't be. I also expect that it won't stop there - many other vaccines will join the list, probably at the same time. Some Pacific Island nations already require the MMR shot prior to entry, some of these countries need it 15 days before entering the country (such as Vanuatu).

If a vaccine requirement were to come into place, it will dampen travel demand as some people won't travel anymore if they're required to be vaccinated as a pre-condition to entry.

Still, I don't think it will happen like this. International travel will resume in the coming weeks, led mainly by people stuck, voluntarily or otherwise in foreign countries wanting to return home when travel restrictions ease, family visit, then business and high-end leisure travelers, and finally backpackers and mass leisure travelers.

It's anyone's guess as to the timeline this will happen, but I don't believe this think tank. Provided economic conditions improve, people who are out of work now regain their jobs or find new ones, then travel demand will pick up within months. I see borders re-opening in 1-2 months, and travel demand slowly coming back over the course of 3-6 months. It's quite possible the coronavirus scare will soften demand for much travel for years to come, depending on how frightened potential travelers are by the prospect of getting stuck abroad, the possibility of such closures happening again and of course, any changes in entry requirements as a result of this.

One thing is for sure - if travel/entry regulations are tightened going into the future, it will result in permanently lower travel demand. One of the pleasures of traveling abroad so far has been how easy it is to get on a plane and enter another country. Aside from the odd Pacific island nation (since last year) and some African/South American countries for which yellow fever vaccines are required, all other countries tend to have very simple entry requirements. Even Saudi Arabia opened up to general tourism only last year.

Upupandaway do note cancer is not contagious and if we did not do travel bans, quarantine, social distancing, our Covid death toll would soon match cancer and more. Hence my view of a slow return to ‘normal' or even a new normal.

I'm lost totally, I see no relevance to my comment, I must to uneducated

I think my point is that there won't be any safe places to link to outside Australia as the risk of another returning traveller(s) outbreak is simply too great and 1% (mortality) of a large lot is still a lot. The lack of any sensible testing in the UK and much of the US sort of rules them out. In Australia WA and NT may keep travel bans for longer as the risk from the rest of Australia is still too great.

Your making an assumption on the time line I meant by "pretty quick" and you have put no time line on your thoughts, are you talking 2023?. I'm think VIC, NSW and QLD will get back to normal first with flights followed by the other states. A safe heaven link maybe NZ to come online and I'm sure there will be some type of test happening as well.

I think east coast domestic later this year, could be third quarter and you're right NZ may be not long after. Further international will be driven by vaccine development, probably later next year and travel contingent on vaccination or anti-bodies. Then the students can come back and business travel and more adventurous holidayers. 2022 mostly back to a new ‘normal'.

I agree by Q3 we will see regional state open up again (BNE-TSV, SYD-PQQ, etc), by the end of Q3 I would highly expect that Australian domestic travel will restart as well. Only if we continue on the trajectory we are at right now. Internationally it will take longer and I think that it will be countries that have proven that their robust measures have lead to results. Looking at Singapore and Hong Kong, they are reliant on the tourist dollar as much as the local if not more. Major hotels are sitting empty at the moment. They have put in strong measures and are seeing the benefits of this already with their new case numbers. Australia is seeing a reduction in daily new cases but needs to maintain this momentum for at least another month to be able to say that we are truly on the other side.

Oh, God help us all if NZ is the only safe place to go. Their PM would impose some rediculous, PC test upon landing. Tahiti on the other hand .....

Although, I'm told by locals the that Ahern will struggle to get re-elected. Nope, let's hope USA and UK get on top of this soon.

We don't know yet how much our weather saved us (it was late summer here v late winter in the northern hemisphere when this really kicked off).

I agree COVID 19 will require annual vaccinations like flu and it will also need some reasonable anti-viral treatment if we do get it. Forget herd immunity.

Absolutely, Patrick. Annual re-vaccination for covid-19 will be required, if it were a pre-condition to entry into foreign countries. Even if it isn't, it will become a recommended vaccine, with annual re-vaccination taking place like the flu.

Krisdude, I agree...vaccines don't eliminate diseases from circulation, otherwise MMR, tetanus and other vaccines wouldn't have been given to everyone since the 60s and continuing to the present day. In fact, most vaccines now have booster shots that weren't previously given. The one exception is yellow fever, which is now valid for life. Previously, it was recommended to get 10-year boosters.

In any case, we will be looking at countries returning to normal long before a covid19 vaccine comes out, or if it does. We all managed to survive perfectly well, traveling around the world before this crisis and we'll manage to do so, once we emerge out of it.

Who or what is OAG

I think that other coronaviruses and planet warming has some news for you and it is not good.

AfricaTraveller, you're right. Most people have short memories and once this crisis passes, in just weeks normal life, which includes travelling, will resume. Some hysterical people who are scared of life itself may stay away from travel for some time, but for those of us who thrive on it, and who can't imagine life without it, will get on planes and cross borders almost as soon as we're allowed to.

COVID-19 virus and the other members the coronavirus family have some news for you and its not good.

Corona viruses cause the common cold. If they were as deadly as you're making them out to be, no one would be able to survive. Our immune systems are generally more than capable of dealing with what comes our way.

Freqflyer the poster was referring to other members of the corona virus family such as SARS and MERS. The common cold has been around long enough for us to develop immunity. Given what we have seen with a staggering high mortality rate of 1% of infections I am far less sanguine than you on what our immune systems can handle. Give us ten years and you may be right but a lot of dead bodies in the meantime. One per cent of 25million is 250,000. The health system would be overwhelmed so the death rate would be closer to 10%, 2.5 million.

There are people who used to be laughed at and ridiculed called "conspiracy theorists" who made the claim that vaccinations will be required to be a part of society in the future, whether for travel, to enter foreign countries, get visas and extensions and even for driver licenses. Now, due to the current crisis, many ordinary folk are talking about this and expect it to happen.

I see it differently. First of all, there will be considerable resistance to the idea of mandatory vaccinations. Secondly, many governments will be reluctant to impose blanket requirements like these, as it's unethical and presents a problem if adverse reactions occur, will they be liable to being sued? Of course, they can just exempt themselves from being litigated against, but softened travel demand will inevitably occur if the requirements to travel are tightened. Some tourism dependent countries will likely resist any attempt to make it too complicated to travel for this reason.

Lastly, it is untrue that vaccines used to be required for travel but aren't now. The opposite has in fact happened. You may not be aware that for many years now, some African and South American countries require proof of yellow fever vaccination to enter (or only if you have arrived from a transmission zone). There are also several Asian countries, which do not require vaccines for entry, but if you have traveled from a yellow fever zone within the past 6-10 days, also require proof of vaccination or an exemption, prior to being admitted.

Some Pacific Island nations now require proof of MMR vaccination prior to entry, since December 2019. This includes the Marshall Islands and Vanuatu. Saudi Arabia requires numerous vaccines for Hajj pilgrims, including meningitis and polio. China reportedly requires polio vaccination if arriving from Pakistan via their shared land border crossing. Pakistan reportedly also requires all citizens, as well as any foreign traveler, who has spent more than 4 weeks in the country, to present proof of recent polio vaccination prior to being allowed to leave.

In previous decades, vaccines were never required for international travel.

Can you not see that you've contradicted yourself in the space of two sentences?

I see the quarantine measures being relaxed and removed quite quickly after a return to normalcy. Still, the 64000 dollar question is when will this happen? I don't know any more than anyone else, but my hunch is 1-2 months.

I, like you Dave, will carefully consider my plans to avoid quarantine measures, should they still be in place after travel becomes possible again, though I don't see it. I don't think you can have normal travel if the prospect of a 2 week enforced stay in a facility of the government's choosing, even if it's a nice luxury hotel, continues to be imposed.

Dear freqflyer I think it will be some months before Europe and the US are open given the issues they are having. A good anti retroviral will reduce the time but not until a vaccine otherwise otherwise we will be spreaders which the government won't like.

Doubtful - the USA will re-open far more quickly than many other countries. Already lots of protests happening.

You'll see I'm right - 2 months max before everything is back to normal (with perhaps a few countries re-opening a little later).

The Freq Flyer even if the US does open no-one will want to go there or be allowed to come from there due to their totally unreliable and decentralised COVID testing and tracking regime. Remember most Australian imported COVID cases came from the US. The issue is not if a country is open internally but if they have a robust and reliable system to ensure infected people can't travel internationally. That is more than a couple of months away. Not sure there are ‘lots of protests' a handful with less than 100 each doth not make a social movement.

Patrick, bureaucrats will make the decision to re-open countries. You're looking at this from the wrong perspective - not only do you believe the mainstream story, but if what you are saying were to happen, countries would never open up again. It simply can't go on like this forever.

Mark my words - in a few weeks, major economies will have re-opened. While I'm certainly no clairvoyant, but I think in max. 2 months time, the USA and most of Europe will be back to business as usual.

What I can't say is whether there will be any new travel requirements in light of all this. Increased surveillance and possible mandatory phone tracking/installation of tracking apps may be one outcome, it could also include thermal temperature screening at airports and other ports of entry, as China has been doing continuously since 2003. Most travelers won't even notice this. Or, less likely, we'll go back to normal without any changes to the previous status quo.

And I can tell you a lot of people are eager to head to the USA and they aren't living in fear. I plan on going there later this year.

You make a good point about countries opening to a 'near' normal state within a few months - I believe that this is a foreseeable future. We can't live off Government funded job keeping schemes forever, money needs to circulate - Already in Australia, for less than a month fuel priced were averaging well below a dollar a litre, but now, once the Government allowed people the ability to travel within their state and visit people, the price of fuel skyrocketed back to pre-Covid prices, around $1.20 a litre.

It is not a matter of being complacent or not caring for the safety of others - people have made plans and want to make plans. It is not fair to those who have worked hard for many years in their life, not to be allowed the freedom of a holiday.

People already have their spirits high and are very eager to return to their normal travelling routines, and I am one of those people. You can't cure every virus we face, but you can prevent them from occurring again.

Those restriction put in place by governments, in Australia at least, where removed quicker than they were enforced.

People will do things as soon as they can, they have been itching too for months and I wont be surprised to see an economic boost once the large restrictions are lifted.

That's a good point. Most corporate travel really isn't essential. Especially for Australian businessmen, most of whom are in the banking/finance/insurance and other similar white collar professions, given that manufacturing in Australia has all but ceased. Since these sectors don't produce anything tangible, there is little reason for face to face meetings except for cultural reasons perhaps. Nearly all meetings can be conducted via Zoom, Skype or some other video conference software.

It's those of us running businesses abroad, such as manufacturing based ones, who have a need for travel. I therefore see many companies cutting corporate travel, especially all the non-essential travel to places like Singapore, which is almost entirely white collar based, leaving travel for more essential forays to factories in Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, China and the USA.

fnorman, you don't know what "majority views" are; you're making assumptions. Americans cherish their freedoms and if you only watch CNN and MSNBC, you're getting a biased picture. The leftist mainstream media is particularly strong on wanting to keep the restrictions going as long as possible. Apparently that's the most "progressive" thing to do.

Yes, there will probably be phases to re-opening, but they will be staged over a few weeks, to the point that after a month or two at the latest, all (or most) of these measures will be dropped. Just think about the resources needed to enforce all these things. There's a point where the government, the army and police will just say, "we can't do this anymore". Already in some Asian countries, national governments are finding it difficult to keep the enforcement up. It drains resources from more important things.

Freqflyer the other issue is insurance. I can't do business travel this year as I can't get insurance through work. Next year maybe different with anti retrovirals or a vaccine but your couple of months is a bit ambitious. On your other point police love enforcement and the Asian countries that are ‘having trouble keeping it up' are having big spikes, so not sure where optimism is coming from. The Spanish flu another corona virus had three spikes with latter spikes worse than the first and it killed 50m. Not sure what is more important than fighting a pandemic. Careful what you wish for.

Be careful what you wish for...you're pinning your hope on a vaccine that will undoubtedly have no ability to control this virus.

"Police love enforcement"? Never heard that phrase before, please explain?

Well too bad for you if you can't get insurance. Many people can, some people go without. We all have to decide whether we want to take the risk or not.

Freqflyer There will be a vaccine or anti-retrovirals, and like the flu it may have to be every year and I am sure by 2021 or 2022 at the latest it will keep CV-19 in check enough to keep us out of hospitals. And of course police love enforcing that is their day job. Just see how vigorous they are in enforcing lock downs. I can't see them ever getting bored with it. Having just had an insurance claim for a very mundane visit to a US hospital then having CV-19 covered is more than wise.

It's not guaranteed there will be a vaccine, some experts are saying it's unrealistic to expect one so quickly, as they normally take years to develop. To this day, there is still no HIV vaccine on the market despite clinical trials of experimental HIV vaccines. There is a dengue fever vaccine, but it's not recommended even if you go to a dengue hotspot.

Yes, the police may very well love enforcing things if they get paid enough to do it. Depends on the country though, in Australia probably yes, but in many developing countries they're going to run out of steam eventually. This show hasn't run it's course though, we're just weeks in but let's see whether the same desire to enforce lock downs remains if this goes on for months or years. And that's assuming you don't get widespread protests first, which have already started in America, Italy and a few other countries. Even in Kenya.

Those of us reading this kind of publication are obviously quite well off financially and will probably weather the current storm OK. Many others, including a large section of the Australian population are not, so I think it's a bit elitist to sit up on our ivory towers and assume that "she'll be right mate" when many people have already lost their jobs, and surviving on government handouts alone will drag down the standard of living of many people for years to come, possibly permanently. If the crisis eases within the next month, most people will probably emerge OK, but if it drags on for 6-12 months or more (though I doubt it, but you never know) then all bets are off.

They won't. You can't keep social distancing up forever, unless you want to create a permanent "animal farm".

Secondly, if they keep these measures in place for years, it means permanently. Governments are very quick to take away rights, but rarely do they return them to us.

Airlines will go out of business permanently, and then the likes of online magazines like this one will largely become irrelevant, since business travel will cease to exist.

I can't predict the future, but I do have a hunch that business leaders and the public at large won't accept a future that is too vastly different from the recent past we just left behind. Everything was fine and dandy until a few weeks ago, why should we accept such infringements on our civil liberties from one day to the next? If we managed to survive until now, we'll certainly survive until whenever our number is up.

Freqflyer when your number is up is fine but if you take two people with you then it becomes a very big issue when you multiply this by several hundred thousand. Spain started with a football match as did the UK if the latest reports prove correct.

Patrick, stop the fear mongering. Last year there were multiple measles outbreaks in a number of different parts of the world. They did a mass vaccination drive in Samoa, vaccinating the entire population and tried enforcing mandates in parts of NY/NJ, but other than that there were no restrictions, no flight suspensions, no lock downs.

Yet measles is supposedly 9-10 times more infectious than covid-19, as up to 18 people can be infected by one infectious person.

Please explain that one.

Freqflyer most people have been vaccinated against measles or like me had it when we were young so have immunity, and as someone who has had it is not anywhere near as lethal or debilitating.. If the same proportion of the population had immunity against Covid-19 due to existing anti-bodies or vaccination it won't be a drama. I expect this will be the case in 2022 but certainly not this year. Just look at the death toll.

How do you know most people have been vaccinated against the measles? Children in Australia maybe, but only since the 90s...before then only half of all children were vaccinated. In other countries like Samoa, it was down to 31%. Guess what? Irrespective of prior vax status or immunity ALL Samoan residents had to submit to vaccination late last year and 93% were eventually vaccinated.

Now, the Marshall Islands and Vanuatu require a vaccination certificate for measles to enter the country.

And your argument doesn't hold water given that flu viruses mutate and every year a new vaccination against the flu is urged. Starting May 1, if your parents are in a nursing home, you won't be able to visit without getting a flu shot as that's about to become mandatory.

And there you go - you just admitted it...measles is not lethal in the vast majority of cases. Well neither is covid-19, if you look at ALL the evidence and not just what fits your narrative, you'll find some inconvenient truths, such as 99% of all Italian victims having pre-existing conditions and all of these individuals were of advanced age.

Also look up Event 201 please...it's a 5-part pandemic exercise sponsored by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the WEF and John Hopkins. Closely mirrors what's happening now.

Freqflyer as I said in an earlier post a 1% lethal rate is a very big deal, so 99% not dying is not a great solace. Flu is one tenth of that, and 20% CV-19 need hospitalisation, another very big deal, and can quickly overcome health systems as New York is finding. The latest for the UK is 40,000 which comes down to around 10,000 hospital beds. Quite a big deal.

It's not 1% though and all depends on how deaths are tallied... also is it 1% of all elderly patients or all patients? Probably the former. Anyway, look up Event 201.

FreqFler the 1% is total for example Australia is 75 deaths out of 6500 cases

Just to finish the above. Australia is 1.1% mortality of total infections. Others are higher probably due to lower testing rates and more vulnerable populations. This is an easy calculation. While older people die the 20% that end up in hospital include the much younger. Buying time while we sort out how to manage it is not such a bad idea. We will have another month of lock down then we can go back to work at an office but travel out of Australia will be some ways off. To the US who knows given its rather shambollick lack of coordination.

Of course the media want the restrictions to continue for as long as possible as they are the government's mouthpiece. I feel sorry for you that you don't realize this.

The reason many people (you say most but since you've never done a poll you have no way of knowing what the majority consensus actually is) want the restrictions to continue indefinitely is because the media has done their job of manufacturing the public's consent. Most people are brainwashed and you are certainly a good example of this.

Even if 22%/29% of whatever limited poll you are referring to are concerned about these restrictions dragging out too long, that's still a large percentage of the population. The longer they continue, the higher this percentage will become.

Regular you are probably right but it might be another year to get beyond the trans Tasman bubble. Maybe Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam, and HK are possible but beyond that hard to see.

no way, too much financial pressure. October at latest, which also happens to be 6 months after the real start of shutdown. Video links don't cut it. Face to face meetings are only way to go as business is concerned.

The world has to restart soon or we'll have 10 times the crime we have now & the good ol boys will be shooting anyone & everyone, including politicians.

Mental health is already a big problem as is domestic violence.

The yanks aren't closing down their skies.

When are you predicting flights to the USA to become unrestricted for aussie travellers?

I agree with regular flyer. Although a lot of developments have occurred in the 4 weeks since your comments were made, patrick is way off if he thinks airlines and cross border businesses can survive another year of shutdowns. Never in modern history have we experienced anything that comes even close to this.

I agree based on current assessments October sounds about right in terms of getting fully back to normal. Europe is already opening up (so far just to each other's countries, but still), by next month some European countries will open travel bubbles and the Aus-NZ bubble will likely take shape in a month or two, rather than September.

Asian countries are talking of a bubble of their own - Japan is targeting Thailand, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand. Thailand is targeting China, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, possibly Australia and New Zealand. Vietnam is targeting Laos, Cambodia, some cities in China and Japan. About a month or two after the emergence of these bubbles, the rest of the world is likely to be added and things will get back to normal.

in short term preventive drugs like possibly the Malaria drugs might work & seem to have promise.

I'd have no issue flying to USA now, but I wouldn't spend a lot of time in their cities.

Domestic - intrastate should start now, at least in Qld. 6 deaths in how long ? 2 months ?

Interstate should start very soon like next month, along with to NZ.

No one seems to be talking about the flu which will kill far more than corona.

Nicholas what a great post. To everything you say (which I agree with) I would add that cruise ships must also use hospital grade filters (N95) on their air conditioning much like aeroplanes do. They (the cruise ships) say they have the same filters as hotels but people don't spend weeks at time in hotel rooms .... unless they are in quarantine!!

Italy of all places is opening it's borders in 2 weeks time. The rest of the world will follow very soon. They have to, to stop unemployment growing rapidly.

I agree. I think Christmas at the very latest. Once travel restrictions have been lifted, normal travel will resume very quickly.

think the Sept 10 prediction from tourism restart taskforce is a bit pessimistic. I think flights to most places around the world will be unrestricted before Sept 10, from all the positive news of late

Regular you may be right for some countries but given the poor state of the UK and the US in controlling this, quarantine will be the order of the day. If a country is relatively free (Australia) and the only new cases being travellers in quarantine, then they would be dumb to open up, and let carriers run riot and we know what that means ( see New York) It really can't get any worse for Italy for Australia it can. It is much more than flu and people under 40 with no risk attributes are being laid up at home for nearly two months with it. Be careful for what you wish for.