Virgin Australia isn’t in a hurry to resume long-range flights

I don't have any insider knowledge but your comments seem to be at odds with CEO Jane's comments. In any case, a LOI isn't worth the paper it's written on.

I've heard the same thing but as an "option" that a 737 Max can be converted to a 787 but the numbers don't stack up. I'd be putting lie flat business seats into a couple of the 737 Max aircraft for Sydney - Perth, Sydney - Bali etc.

A 737MAX subfleet for Syd / Mel - PER and Bali doesn't stack up when your competitors also largely use the 737s with recliners in J on the majority of their flights same routes and the yield on the short haul international routes is largely budget tourist heavy where the "flat bed on every flight" doesn't make sense.

If the Haneda slots are not activated by October, I believe they go back to the IASC to reallocate which would probably mean QF will be the only bidder for them.  I don't believe VA can take the slots and then give them to ANA to operate.

Not so sure on LAX.  Airlines don't own landing slots in USA (or most other airports for that matter, LHR being the obvious big exception) but there are some limitations for landing and take-offs as well as gate allocations.  I would think the old VA international allocations at LAX are now probably gone and, if they ever decide to resume long-haul, they will start from a completely new application.

Jayne needs to think laterally (don't laugh, stop it!) and find a way to extend these FFCs WELL BEYOND next January.  

One idea might be to extend FFCs indefinitely , but introduce a sliding scale of cross-subsidy fare purchase whereby, say, only 80% of the fare can paid using flight credits from January 2024, reducing to 60% from January 2026, then 40% from January 2028 and 20% after January 2030.  Of course, I'm assuming that ALL flights booked via the Virgin web site (including those on partner airlines such as United, Singapore, Qatar, Etihad, Virgin Atlantic, etc.) can be purchased using FFCs.    

Yeah, you're welcome Jayne. 

FFC are only on VA metal which is currently domestic unless you love Fiji or one of those countries in a poor excuse for business class.

Reading the financials I think they will struggle to be profitable in years 3 to 4 unless Qantas goes under.

It’s a duopoly and I’ve seen this done 30 years ago where a competitor increased the price and the other prices matches, they both use the excuse that they have rising cost to content with and that is the reason for the increase.

Not sure how you can possibly read financials for FY22 and deduce profitability levels 3 years out.  Great skill if you've got it and, if so, I'd be concentrating on listed stocks and buying those you know will be booming and selling those on the decline.

Your comment on dupolies is why they are so good.  A duopoly doesn't attract the restrictions imposed by authorities on a monopoly but offers great profit potential for both members.

@Reeves35, Blind Freddy with One Eye can see the future from past and present conditions.

One example of reading the future is hostesses are getting $150.00 a day to work then they have to pay tolls, Rego, Fuel etc to get to work, staff are leaving in droves. The upward presses on the business will impact 3 -4 years out. 

Considering I've been right on so many other points, put that in the memory bank for 2025- 2026. 

Not quite sure where you are getting the $150 per day from.  Indeed quotes VA cabin crew as earning around $57K p.a. which works out as around $257 per day assuming 220 work days per year, not great but cabin crew wages have declined in recent years as supply exceeded demand.  Maybe that is changing but it will change across the industry.  Ticket cost has tracked under long-term inflation for many years so, at some point, consumers will have to accept an ongoing increase in prices.

I agree with Mr TAA staff are complaining to me about there $150.00 a day pay.

So jump on the ATO website punch in $57,000.00 divided by 52 equals $900.00 a week divided by 6 equals $150.00 and on your next trip politely tell the cabin crew what a great job they do and Paul Scurrah and John Thomas should be running VA. 

Except UUAA its been many a long year that cabin crew have been called hostesses.

You should try to get out of the TAA era.

I trust, UpUpAndAway, that you were referring to the source of this observation:

The accounts note that Bain has an ongoing agreement to provide the carrier with “management and other consulting services”, which include a fixed annual feeand expensesthat tally to several million dollars a month.

June 2023 is a big challenge but once real numbers come into play the challenge will be a lot worse.

With rumours of VA and NZ once again looking at merger options (The Australian 15/9 behind paywall), it may happen that VA never does an IPO but lists via NZ which is already dual-listed in both Australia and NZ.

Air NZ would be a good tie up but I think it's a play at upppping the price other airlines will pay for VA.

Remember I predicted a REX (talks) take over and also Air NZ talks. Logic here is Singapore Airlines to put bums on seats.

A narrative of an alternative suitor may very well help with the IPO subscription to suggest its future “profitability” but ultimately like Uber and Tesla its business model is subject to no similar alternative.

If REx gets its act together in term of inter capital scheduling in the east coast, j class experience and more importantly, it’s loyalty program then it will challenge VA particularly with its country route feeders. I am seriously surprised how it is still struggling in the latter issues some 18 months into its foray into the golden triangle market