Boeing's vision of the future has no place for the 747 or A380
By Bloomberg News, June 20 2017
Boeing sees the future and it doesn’t include jumbo passenger jets. Not its own iconic 747 – but not the Airbus A380 'superjumbo', for that matter.
The US planemaker has dropped the category reserved for four-engine behemoths from its annual forecast for the commercial-aircraft market. Instead, Boeing predicts that airlines will use more efficient twin-engine jets for long-range flights – like its 787 Dreamliner, 777X or the mid-market 797 that’s on the drawing board.
By leaving so-called very large aircraft off its two-decade projection for a US$6.05 trillion jetliner market, Boeing said it was reflecting a market reality: There is little to no chance of reviving sales.
Both the Chicago-based company and Airbus already had pared production of their biggest aircraft as orders dwindled, and Boeing has warned it may end 747 production.
Four engines are two too many
"We don’t see much demand for really big aircraft going forward," Randy Tinseth, Boeing’s vice president for marketing, said at a briefing ahead of the Paris Air Show, which began Monday. “We find it hard to believe that Airbus will deliver the rest of their A380s in backlog."
Airbus still sees a long-term market for the planes although it didn’t log a single A380 sale last year.
The European manufacturer says airlines will need larger jets as passenger traffic doubles and congestion limits the number of flights into megahubs, particularly in Asia and the Middle East. The company projects potential sales of 1,406 of the largest commercial aircraft, valued at US$454 billion through 2037.
Boeing trumpets the 797's 'lighter touch'
As the jumbo era ends at Boeing, the planemaker sees a new market emerging for mid-range airplanes overlapping the largest single-aisle and smallest twin-aisle jets.
“They went big and heavy, we went small and efficient,” said Mike Delaney, Boeing vice president and general manager for airplane development. “We’ll overfly our competitors, put a lighter gauge on things."
The plane Boeing is developing – dubbed the 797 or NMA, for new mid-market airplane – would seat between 220 and 270 travelers and fly about 5,000 nautical miles.
The goal is to spur growth with jetliners that avoid hubs and fly direct to smaller cities on routes that aren’t properly matched to today’s aircraft. Think Washington to Prague, Japan to India, or within China’s “Golden Triangle’’ of Shanghai, Guangzhou and Beijing.
Airlines also could use the new jet on transcontinental flights to replace aging Boeing 757 and 767 jets. Budget carriers could graduate from single-aisle jets to the larger planes for more-popular routes.
Tinseth projects a potential market of 4,000 to 5,000 sales in that segment over 20 years.
Clogged aisles
Airbus has already made advances in that market with its largest single-aisle plane, the A321neo, and is exploring a stretched version that would hold more than 240 travelers.
While that narrow-body would probably be cheaper than the new Boeing dual-aisle, the US company sees a competitive advantage in a design that lets passengers board and disembark far more quickly.
Single-aisle aircraft like the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 will still rule the market, accounting for nearly three-quarters of total sales, according to Boeing’s forecast. The planemaker predicts a need for 29,530 narrow-bodies valued at US$3.18 trillion through 2036.
The next most popular type will be small wide-body aircraft, like the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and Airbus A330, accounting for 5,050 deliveries or 12 percent of forecast sales, Boeing predicts.
Sales of very large aircraft will probably be confined to Boeing’s niche-market 747-8 freighter and a handful of jets for VIPs, like the next Air Force One for the US president.
The hump-backed 747 – which in 1970 ushered in a new era of mass long-range travel – eventually will be replaced at the top of the jetliner food chain by Boeing’s 777X. The first delivery for that 400-seat plane is scheduled for 2020.
“The biggest airplane in the market moving forward is going to be the 777X,” Tinseth said.
Qantas
19 Apr 2012
Total posts 1429
Japan to India??? Any flight to Mumbai would require a large plane; it is severely slot restricted and perfect for an A380 if India would allow it.
Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer
18 Jun 2015
Total posts 57
A380s have been allowed since 2014 although EY has had trouble with filling up premium classes so I guess only "ultra-high config" will work for Mumbai
31 Mar 2016
Total posts 619
patrickk:
QFF
12 Apr 2013
Total posts 1564
It is sad but true - B747 slowly but surely going from out skies.
Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer
08 Jun 2016
Total posts 44
call me old-fashioned, but I still feel better with 4 engines over 2.... particularly when crossing the Pacific
16 Jun 2017
Total posts 5
It's sad, I think a lot of fliers love the B747 and A380 as they inspire awe and nostalgia. You just have to look at the order log to see that Boeing's estimations are true.
29 Jan 2012
Total posts 184
The airlines have it wrong - a bit call I hear you say but they are running on numbers generated over the past 10 years. While cheap and free money is about, the industry will see increase with its passenger loads with selected non hub route growth, but when the economy crashes, which it will soon, the legacy airlines, along with their hub routes flying the larger wide bodies 747 and A380 will once again rule - the aviation blueprint of the 70's will return as the economic crash will rebalance the industry and the new generation discount aviators of the past 10 years returning to land transport or simply staying at home while the business and old money traveller will continue to fly, in reduced numbers as before. The trend is cyclic and time will show this. This gross expansion will not be sustained.
31 Mar 2016
Total posts 619
@traveller90:
29 Jan 2012
Total posts 184
Enjoyed your feedback. I agree with your economic definition, and I should have clarified by adding "larger aircraft, but with lesser frequency". I feel the AA's chairman's views may have been made during the time when down sizing aircraft comparisons were the 707 to the Electra and DC8 to the DC9 - and not included the newly released larger 747, DC10 and L1011's which mostly only flew the main and heaving trunk routes between the main international hubs of the day.
I do have a passion for 4 engine aircraft over the dual engine long haul aircraft, but still stand true with my view that with reduced passenger loads, larger aircraft flying main trunk routes with a reduced frequency with codeshare arrangements like in the 70's with QF TE and BOAC, is where the future will be - and this was my focus in original comment. I simply see a return to the 60's and 70's. I fully believe following the economic collapse, this is the only way the legacy airlines will survive. But this is only my opinion. Let us see which way it goes.
31 Mar 2016
Total posts 619
@traveller90:
29 Jan 2012
Total posts 184
Hello again. I simply believe for the majority of passengers the romance of travel and the aircraft type they travel on is where the answer lies. Don't forget the origin of this discussion for me was following a global economic downturn and the passenger loads I speak of are those who will still be able to afford to fly. Before FF schemes, passengers flew on the airlines they liked and the aircraft they liked as airfares globally were fairly much in balance. Now with FF schemes in place and bean counters running the airlines, along with the budget carriers arriving over the past 20 years, marketing and cost per seat mile is todays measure by the operators.
I feel long haul passengers would still prefer to travel in the space of 747's rather than the smaller cramped 789's and 359's, especially given the 16+ hour flights now being sold, and with reduced frequency, operators would be able to fill the 748'sand A380's with careful scheduling. Fewer flights, catering for reduced passenger numbers, in larger planes with a cheaper cost per seat as apposed to the same number of passengers travelling in smaller planes, with a higher frequency and higher cost per seat. Economies of scale!
Qantas - Qantas Frequent Flyer
18 May 2017
Total posts 37
I do second the other person's comments, regarding 4 engine aircraft... I much prefer a 4 engine aircraft going from Australia direct to South America, or South Africa. Be it the 747 or the A380. I don't like to fly 2 engine aircraft so south over the expansive Southern Pacific or Indian Oceans, for obvious reasons. I certainly would not discount the jumbo sized 4 engine aircraft from the passenger market just yet. Where would Emirates Airways be if they did not fly the A380 from Australia to Dubai? In Dubai, passengers can then transfer to mid size aircraft for smaller European or Mediterranean cities, avoiding a large hub-size airport at their arrival city. It seems that Emirates and similar carriers are very well served by the A380, and in due course, they will need new ones to update their fleet. That's my personal view as a traveller.
31 Mar 2016
Total posts 619
@Felipe:
29 Jan 2012
Total posts 184
To add to the conversation, the wide bodied 747's and A380's have the opportunity to provide added comfort levels for all passengers with lounges for F and J, and Y having standing zones due to the aircrafts size and configuration. The EK A380 is a good example of this - especially for the Y passenger. There is nothing like have some quiet stand up zones to stretch the body given the 14 - 18 hours flights they travel. Try to do the same in a 14 - 18 hour EK 772LR or the proposed QF 789 PER to LHR. It's not the same!
31 Mar 2016
Total posts 619
traveller90:
29 Jan 2012
Total posts 184
The standing zones I speak of are on EK's A380's ULH versions up the front of the Y cabin at the base of the stairs where the 5 toilets are and the standing area at the rear of the cabin also near the steps and toilets. Not a lounge environment I know, but makes for a nice place for Y passengers to stand, have a chat, stretch and enjoy a quiet drink, which many passengers do. Try to find this space on their 777's as all you'll find is a curtain divider at the front of the Y cabin and a cramped crew only galley at the rear of the Y cabin - definitely no standing spaces on this aircraft type which also does the 16+ hour journeys.
Korean has their standing zone at their duty free shop at the rear of the Y cabin on their A380's, another zone enjoyed by Y class passengers for a drink and chat, Did not see however much shopping being done. The QF 747's also have a standing zone at the rear of their Y cabin located near their doors and rear cabin toilets. All the new and smaller airframes you speak of have galleys at the rear, usually curtained off in a way as to impede any change of stretching, chatting or enjoying a quiet drink to pass the miles. QF 789 will be a perfect example of this, cramped full with passengers with no standing zones of which I speak, reduced toilet numbers and this aircraft is for 18+ hour journeys. Makes you wonder! Give me the large "space ships" any day.
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