What routes for Qantas' next six Boeing 787s?

Interesting on how QF will place the planes in late 2019, (assuming the next tranche of four later this year will include Bris-Chicago). Paris is certainly on the books, and possibly a second London flight (but less likely), and/or Frankfurt. I can also see Dallas move to a 789 as the current flights are a bit of over capacity (e.g moving to 6 days a week and are never full, at least when I am on them) and at times they fly back short quite a few seats (weight limitations). Can the 789 do Jo-Burg or Santiago?. If ETOPS not allowed Jo-Burg and Santiago will have to go A380s fewer days of the week. So one possibility is to have the six 789s being Sydney based and do DFW, San Francisco, Paris, and maybe Haneda, with the freed up A380s (after refurb) to Jo-burg, Santiago (4or 5 days a week each) Hong Kong and possibly Narita. I may not have enough planes for all of that. Further thoughts?

Qantas for the time being wont plan any more international flights out of perth, due to perth airports' unwillingness to allow more qantas international flights fly out of the qantas terminal and insists on qantas utilising the international terminal for any more international flights.

I personally don’t think they will ‘replace’ many more traditional 747 routes as opposed to augment them until the true replacement arrives... Hopefully this means we see additional Perth - Europe flights (Perth airport can’t play these games forever) and perhaps MEL - DFW.

It’s worth noting that Qantas is playing coy at the moment with it’s fleet plans, in fact - I imagine you won’t hear too much from that department until the 777X (whoops, I mean Project Sunrise 😉) orders are announced! I know it looks like 14 789s are replacing the 10 744s but there appears to be a much larger plan at play to turn a gas guzzling international outfit into a fleet of modern twinjets.

What I’m ultimately hoping to see is a net increase in seats achieved by diversifying QFs current destinations. For example, instead of a straight swap of 744 to 789 on the JNB route they could use the smaller aircraft on both JNB and CPT. Such an operation would require QF to order over two dozen widebodies in the coming years, but without an increase in service frequency or added destinations QF will essentially reject a very good opportunity to reestablish it’s dominance in the international market.

Some of them may have to be based in Sydney to allow full 747 replacement. That is unless BNE or MEL is used to fly to current 747 locations from Sydney. Personally, I think ORD - PER-SYD - SFO or YVR could be high on the books.

Timing is indeed everything, keep in mind the 6 747-400ERs that QF will allegedly retire by 2020 were delivered in the early 2000s. So it’s entirely possible that after a 2022 entry for the 778 that QF may then look at a slow gradual order process for the 779 (not unlike the current 789 drip feed) to replace the A380s delivered in the late 2000s. Pure speculation of course!

Sounds like they want 777-8 but range is a problem. Makes sense having 787-9.

I suspect MEL-PER-LHR will still continue as 60% of passengers are Perth originating and Adelaide and Canberra use that flight as well. Not sure the 789 has the legs for SYD-ORD but from BRIS will just make it. There also may be enough Bris originating passengers to keep the 789 Bris-LA-New York going

Much like QF9/10, I expect the Sunrise flights to be offered at a significant premium. Thus, to maintain a hold of both the non-stop and one(or more)-stop segments I suspect the current North American flights to continue. The AA joint venture being signed could obviously have further implications!

I think the simple answer is these six won't add many new routes as they are simply replacing 747s.

ETOPS330 will see them on JNB and SCL routes, possibly supplemented by a 330 on PER-JNB with the rest used on the remaining US 747 services.

Just can't see QF dropping frequencies on these routes (they will already downgrade seatcount).

Possibly DFW may go 787 with the 380 moved back to West Coast

Both JNB and SCL 747s have been departing with at least 300pax consistently over the last few months. It would seem pretty backward for QF to give up all that revenue as early as next year.

Then I suspect JNB and SCL will go A380 five days a week and 789 to DFW. Haneda to a A333 and maybe A380 to Narita as Haneda won't allow them at suitable times. Note 2020 is the 100th anniversary so fare-welling 747s will be part of that as will be ordering project sunrise planes, and all the A380s be refurbed, so will have an extra A380 for the juggling of routes.

My theory is that this is evidence of Qantas' negotiation tactics with CASA over ETOPS. I think they are hoping that a public appearance to exchange the 747s to 787s on a 'one for one' basis will assist in their argument that they're the required jet for SYD-SCL and SYD-JNB. This would be furthered by the use of LATAMs 787 on SCL-MEL. However, beyond replacement of these routes, the six jets will be really under pressure if they are going to introduce more than a couple additional new frequencies or routes. So I reckon that these jets are meant to appear as the replacements for the 747s as a bargaining chip to CASA, with further orders planned in their growth strategy but not yet announced to roll out the additional new game changing routes.