What's next for Virgin Australia internationally?

While VA's domestic operation ticks on apace, their international partnerships are in full retreat. EY is in a bad way, cutting service after service, while adding redemption fees. NZ and QF's feeder alliance puts significant pressure on VA's trans-tasman traffic, which is shrinking as they lose capacity feed from NZ planes which they can't replace on their own metal.

Simple answer: join a global alliance, most likely SkyTeam (but that would depend on SQ, EY and HNA's support for that), as StarAlliance will not welcome them (thanks to UA and now NZ) and OneWorld is out of the question.

Whats next for VA? most likely dropping all there Tasman routes within the next 12months, there is now way they can get any business traffic, and with the latest agreement with NZ/QF what was left of that market for them is now gone.

VA still have codeshare/JV obligations with HU, HX and DL on the Tasman. Can't see VA dropping Trans-Tasman entirely, most likely will be keeping the bare minimum for their codeshare partners, while replacing the remainder with TT.

They should just go in heavy to Singapore as a conduit to and from Aust for Singapore airlines, they need partners and seem short of other options. They could probably look at adding some regional centres to Singapore as well and maybe the same strategy to NZ also, TSV, MCY, NEW are possibilities where lounge access is less of an imperative, they need to find their own niche in the market somehow, they are getting flogged on the day to day stuff.

Bring back Virgin Blue and differentiate from the crowd!

Hard to predict, there are a number of factors.

Firstly with the NZ/QF agreement, I don't necessarily think it will last long. While the agreement does not require approval to be established, the ACCC has review powers and may possibly determine it anti-competitive behaviour. While it does not cover trans-tasman, particularly in New Zealand the agreement will provide a lot more feeder traffic than before. This will mean sales to fill seats will be less necessary and prices on domestic routes will rise, same with Australia to a lesser extent.

However, if the agreement is not struck down, I can see it going deepening. In which case, Jetstar NZ could potentially be scaled back, which would then leave room in the market for VA to restart domestic ops.

There were also suggestions that Tiger would take on some trans-tasman routes. Once VA's MAXs start arriving over the next year or so, they will start transferring the older 737s to TT. TT may start some trans-tasman routes, and maybe even domestic New Zealand routes. We'll see cooperation between VA and TT like QF and JQ, at least for New Zealand. Otherwise I could potentially see another partner also stepping in. SQ already cover MEL-WLG. EY have aircraft that sit in MEL and SYD long enough for a trans Tasman flight. Maybe DL would even do one from LAX in the opposite direction via AKL.

It's not true that VA hasn't deepened relations with its stable partners. Just last year VA solidified its status credit earning on DL to match it's own flights.

The AC and HX deals will finally come through. It's crazy they've taken this long already.

Re future direction, I believe the future for VA is China. This is more speculators, but I believe there's evidence of a Virgin kangaroo route tie up. HX are looking for a partnership to support their LHR route, most likely VS to take on CX/BA. VS already co-operate somewhat with VA, so I can see a more comprehensive VA/HX/HU/VS agreement happening. VA will carry Australian passengers into HKG and PEK, where HU and HX then carry them onto Europe and Asia under a dual hub strategy. HKG for the primary Euro destinations that HU currently can't get into, and PEK for the second tier Euro destinations like Belgrade.

An increased cooperation with VS could see VA potentially pulled into the VS/AF/KL/DL strategic alliance. This would provide European coverage for VA, and potentially (remember this part is more speculative) eventuate in VA and VS being pulled into Skyteam.

If not, I believe VA will continue to do what VA does, forming partnerships. While they are losing a few atm, remember they did partner with 6 new airlines last year. VA just needs more strategic coverage

The smartest thing (financially) for VA would be to pull out of international flying on its own metal entirely, with the possible exception of LAX. It loses money on international and simply doesn't have enough aircraft. Joining an alliance would help, but John Borghetti remains totally against that. But the current mish-mash of international alliances is a mess, and expecting your customers to play "lounge lotto" (where the lounge used varies depending upon route, class and FF status) is ridiculous.

HX would also be against that, as HX are currently not allowed to fly to the main AU cities with their own metal due to the full bilaterals under the HK-AU agreement. Hence why their parent bought a stake in VA to access the AU market with VA's A330s.

In other words keeping LAX and HKG would be the "extreme" case.

Whatever they do, Virgin needs to immediately replace its CEO. He has run his race, time to bring fresh blood.

Va will not pull out of the Tasman if anything provincal routes such as Dunedin and BNE-WLG will be flown by Tiger,VA has one up on NZ as the later does not offer J/C ex WLG,CHC,ZQN so all Va need to do is make soft product changes.

JQ currently flies MEL-HNL, and let’s not forget that VA don’t have any plans to expand their LH fleet anytime soon...

I wonder, if VA threatened to pull of trans-tasman, would it force a review by the AU and NZ Government competition bodies?

I'd say a SkyTeam application has to be pending....