The future of Qantas after coronavirus

I will make two predictions:

1) qantas uses this crisis to get rid of all the old, cranky staff of their payroll and replace with younger who really care about their customers

2) qantas international loses lots of money so they outsource routes to other carriers. For example sydney Hong Kong they give to Cathay.

What do you think?

Your second point would require the assumption that other airlines are not as affected as Qantas.

We can already see that this is not the case, so it would not be expected that they outsource routes.

On this basis every airline would try outsource routes because they are all going to see huge losses.

Speaking to a QF staff member, it appears that they cleaning out the most senior staff, something that the Union has identified early in the piece was a potential development. Now that everything has shut down and both QF and VA can do what they want, I expect staffing changes/efficiencies/ lower wages all round.

Either way, QF will likely emerge from this as a smaller carrier internationally, and JQ (like VA) will likely have their international network almost (if not) entirely eliminated. Allowing JQ to focus (almost) entirely on the budget traveller on the domestic routes (combination of leisure routes and select trunk routes during quieter times like 2pm or 10pm).

If VA does survive, their smaller international network will also likely be almost (if not entirely) gone, considering most of VA's 'stronger' partners (ala SQ and DL) will also emerge as as smaller carriers. This will allow VA to focus almost entirely on domestic with hopefully a "cleaner" ownership structure with most of VA's debt-ridden owners hopefully off the shareholding registry.

Every airline in the world is facing the same hardship at the moment (perhaps except Qatar by the look of things at the moment). I think it will also depend on how much the government will support them down the track. I'm sure many countries will throw huge loads of money to save their national carriers. I just hope this will all be over in 3-4 months so Qantas will still get a chance to do a proper 100-year celebration, being an even more special one now, after surviving possibly the worst crisis the aviation industry has ever faced in the history of flying.

I think QF will return strong in their domestic operation, they may be lower demand for quite a while but aviation is so important to Australia I feel it will come back to 90% of where it was quite quickly.

International is a different story, as even if Australia manages to stamp out the virus relatively quickly, other countries may not. As an example travel may return to NZ quickly, but I think the US will be a whole different story. As more countries recover international travel will slowly expand. When we get a vaccine or a medical control method, then international will start to really improve.

Where did the 750mill bailout cash go?

There was not a lot of cash - most of the 750 million was relief from fees and charges. If they aren't flying, they aren't getting a lot of benefit from it.

Ok so wasnt cash bailout it was a relief package essentially.

A lot of misinformation with people assuming QF has been given a fistful of money, no money just relief from government fees and charges.

I'm amazed (shouldn't be) how quickly people criticise QF on social media and the likes.

As brinkers stated, with the reduction in flying and customer loads, QF and VA will not get anywhere near the relief total package.

Agreed paclarke would be good if QF and VA released details on this and how it was used

Maybe the government should nationalize and merge both QF and VA to get them through this problem, then demerge and sell off in a few years once the industry has recovered.

My humble opinion for what it's worth

• There will be less airlines - some will simply not survive
• Less people will fly, for a long while at least
• Almost all airlines will become smaller, flying less routes less often
• They will only fly routes that will turn a profit
• Prices will rise (based on average prices just before CoVid-19)
• They will only take on new routes where the primary carrier has vacated the market or is in a bad way
• Fifth-freedom routes may also increase, for a similar reason - this will require Govt support in numerous countries
• Average aircraft capacities will get smaller - we'll see less A380s in the sky
• The Big Two aircraft manufacturers (Boeing and Airbus) will be offering some great deals to airlines, but will ultimately have to shrink significantly themselves
• Global airline alliances will become shakier, with the loss of members and a reduction in total services, hence the loss of alliance coverage in certain parts of the world
• Alliances between two airlines and code-sharing will become much more common

• Qantas have a much greater chance of survival than many other airlines, mainly due to market dominance and geography - they'll be around for many years to come!

People put a lot of crap on AJ but I think Qantas was in good shape going into this and will come out in good shape. Certainly would be crazy if they're not using this opportunity to “fine tune” the business and people. I think this will fastrack decline of the A380's and speed up more 787 and A350. Will be very interesting also to see what happens with VA, SQ and CX and how quick they recover and in what form.

I'd be a cranky staff member too if I had to deal with you. Seriously get a grip.