From today, Australia has slashed its limit on international arrivals

And from today the quota for every week of all inbound international travellers who are Australian residents

NSW is taking in 1505

Vic is taking in less than 50% of their “official” 1100 quota which started on 7 Dec

Qld is taking in 500

WA is taking in 512

SA is taking 490

XWu and is it fair to say NSW is being treated unfairly by the other states for doing the right thing?

@UpUpAndAway

In my opinion, yes.

And more importantly, one particular state seemed to get off very lightly in their obligation, consistently throughout the entire 6 months since the introduction of capped arrivals 

XWU, you forgot about Darwin, Canberra, and Tasmania, and perhaps Carins. All have the capacity to accept international flights with returning Aussies. At the national cabinet meeting, ALL Premiers from each state agreed to take x amount of returning Aussies, Yet we see Glady's and John all having a bitch about doing the heavy lifting when this is what they signed up for and agreed too. 

Further, we could argue that perhaps the percentage of returning Aussies actually live in our 2 biggest capital cities Sydney and Melbourne with the largest airports in the country and our main international hubs. Instead of our politicians bitching about it, the federal government should have made a more conscious effort when they announced they would be bringing stranded Aussie home before Christmas with more flights and or capacity, and perhaps we would have dodged this new strain of the virus. 

To me, the most practical thing to do now, would be testing our stranded Aussies at their origin with a rapid covid-19 test if negative, give them the first shot of the covid-19 vaccine put them in a hotel close to the airport for 2 days, and if no side effects test them again. Another negative result prior to boarding, and they board their flight home, have another test on arrival and go into home quarantine if negative or hotel quarantine if positive this theory should allow bigger aircraft to be utilized and bring more home at a time. Yes this might cost the Government/Taxpayer some cash but this way you limit the virus getting out into the public in each state and prevent future hard lockdown and the hit to people's lives, the economy,  people's jobs, and unrestricted movement around the country.

Ozoeke I agree with all except the rapid test bit. They are shown to be useless hence the requirement for a PCR test which can get a same day result. I would also add a day 3 and 11 test as well. Home quarantine should involve statements about who else is in the household and they be isolated and tested as well. How to check on visitors is tricky but a big enough fine to the visitors and host may deter.

Patrickk whatever tests work for detecting covid quickly and accurately.

They would have to isolate from other household members and no visitors to the home during the quarantine period. Another test at the end of the quarantine period on all household members.

How would you enforce home quarantine rules?

Easy. Using tracing apps or wristbands, which are compulsory in some countries. However, I highly doubt the Australian government will allow home quarantine again for some time to come. In fact, I believe that we're eventually going to go directly from facility quarantine to quarantine-free, when the government decides. Same thing happened with NZ arrivals in October. Straight from facility quarantine to quarantine free from one day to the next.

Sure, with wristbands you are confined to your home. How do you stop your mother from visiting you?

Freq the issue with tracing apps and wristbands is they don’t stop visitors to quarantine peoples houses and this latest version of the bug is particularly nasty if it gets out and as we have seen it is incoming passengers and flight crew who are bringing it in.

jason526

why do you need to enforce home quarantine ? Corona won't kill you unless you are unhealthy. Just stay away from vulnerable types.

Regular that is the  point of quarantine which is to keep you away from vulnerable types which is everybody. It is much less about being killed 1-3% but more about being hospitalised which  is 20-30% and as the UK is finding is the issue.

ah no. Vulnerable are:- elderley with low immunity, cancer patients, diabetics, obese etc. Most of population is not vulnerable at all.

The data on infections suggests that many more than that catch the bug and get sick and end up in hospital. The groups you refer to are more likely to die. The data is there in any number of official websites. Many of the public  figures who we know got it and ended up in hospital don’t fit your list. 

In my state, they used dedicated police officers along with members of the ADF to check up on people, with a huge fine given if you were not home when they called.

If anything, I suspect the rise of these new and more infectious mutated strains of COVID-19 could push back plans for home quarantine. Home quarantine also faces some challenges which we mentioned in this article: https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/australia-considers-home-quarantine-isolation

The keys ones are of course enforcement - which some countries are doing via wristbands and other via apps, along with door-knock visits from police - and how to effectively isolate unless you live alone. I doubt that very very few people who live with a partner or family could properly self-isolate to the degree outlined by medical experts.

We could always follow the actions taken by the PRC and seal people inside their homes with metals bars. Hopefully there is not a fire, medical emergency, or home delivery hot pot required.

Perhaps we could follow the incredible response taken by the independent RoC who clearly do the job of virus elimination, quarantine, and tracking better than the PRC. 

While not directly commenting on the merits of some suggestions, I thought fellow readers should be aware of some information:

Generally the COVID-19 vulnerable age group is 70 years old and older (no major health conditions), 65 years old and older but with chronic health problems.

In both UK and Australia they roughly are about 1 in every 7 residents

They are more likely to vote, and politically active

Despite the majority not in paid work, they account for a large proportion of unpaid activities, and social minding.

Despite the majority not in paid work, they are more likely to spend more money than people under 30 years, their spending likely to generate cash flow in rural area than those under 30 years 

Isolating 15% of the population, (potentially 20% of the voting bloc) telling them to lock down while the rest of the country carry on for months hoping to get herd immunity is socially and politically not acceptable by those “vulnerable” people and their families here and in UK.

Ironically Sweden, the country many people accused of trying to achieve herd immunity by natural infection, had 20% population 70 years and older. And part of the actual strategy (not truly herd immunity by natural infection like others claimed) is to ask those 70 years and older to limit interaction with others. 93% of them self reported  as following that “recommendation” (and NOT rule/law) to some extent.

Sure, Australia did very well with lockdown and closed borders.

UK with lockdown but not much closure of borders didn’t do very well

Sweden with not much lockdown, no border closure didn’t do as well as Australia, but certainly did better than UK, by death per 100,000 overall population.

Hence one idea that works one place doesn’t mean it works elsewhere; it had to be tailored to each country 

@XWu I agree about nuance and different degrees of response may work in different places.  But the decisions should be based on medical advice not who votes, more.  And...in Australia "more likely to vote " is not a thing.  Everyone votes.  Our turnout rates are 98-99% (because it is compulsory).

XWu the situation in Sweden is now appalling and much much worse than its neighbours. The Swedish policy has been a failure and tge government is seeking a parliamentary authority for a lockdown well after the horse has bolted.

As someone overseas and had a number of discussions with the local consulate, this isn't too far from reality.

It makes me ashamed that this is the reality Australians are facing in being able to travel back home. The lack of empathy (especially from Victorians and Queenslanders) about leaving people stranded is terrible. I hope your situation improves soon. 

people have lost their ever-lovin minds over this bug. apparently w/o much fanfare or any nobel prizes being handed out, the world has managed to totally eradicate the flu. amazing.

My son has an SQ flight tonight!!   Yikes.  When does this start? I called the COVID hot line,  they don't know. Called the embassy, they don't know.  Called DFAT, they don't know. Called the Foreign Minister's office staff in Canberra, they don't know.   SQ showing the flight as on.  Curse you Scotty for making this announcement without a start time!!!

@TimHughes

I doubt those scheduled to ARRIVE (not depart) within 24-48 hrs will be affected as it will not be practical to get the details of the other new rules sorted out including the preflight testing which most pax will have trouble finding private testing at short notice so they can’t roll out a half baked policy with no details 

Tim, get your son to get a PCR test and pay more to get a quick turnaround result. They can do it in a couple of hours if pushed/paid enough.

@patrick - cheers, yes, done.  Was posting here while racing through the streets of BKK on the way to a rapid drive through testing location.

Hi Luxtraveller: ScoMo didn't name a date at the media briefing, but he did indicate it wouldn't be happening in the next 24-48 hours as there were already flights underway and others where passengers were all set to travel based on the airline's approved capacity under the current limits.

David - do you have a link to where he said that? Thanks!

No mate, sorry, I was watching the livestream on ABC News 24 and frantically typing notes ands quotes, so I am paraphrasing what he said but it definitely wasn't that the axe would swing tonight.

For what it is worth,  I called back to the Foreign Minister's office.  Spoke a staffer.  He said it will start on Jan 15. 

@TimHughes

Great tip!

It will stop the unnecessary worrying since if it’s gonna happen, it’s gonna happen!

@TheFreqFlyer

I am no legal expert so the the following is pure fantasy which I will indulge 

If the resident is at the airport on Australian soil then they have to let them come in.

But if the carrier fail to follow the rules in checking in pax with the requirements then the government can impose penalty (administrative and financial) on the airline, so the airline (or the check in staff) becomes the de facto border control for our own residents which is no different from the current arrival cap, which is in effect partly administered by the international airlines, as it is the airline who will refuse to provide the service on the day (but can refund or postpone it to another time, presumably allowed in some legal mumbo jumbo in their T&c)

So a carrier can let in some pax/ AUS residents who did not fulfill the requirements but they will quickly find they wouldn’t be able to do it again.

@TheFreqFlyer, there are Victorians stuck in NSW because they can't get the exemption papers to travel back to there home and there not even outside of Australia also I was told this morning a factory in Thailand tested it's work force for Covid and 20% (800) had the virus.

So a "local"  boarding an international ight to AU shouldn't need a test?  So thn possibly infectios and potentailly then infect  the entire flight???

Freq there is a health emergency so health orders are being applied which as we have seen applies to all. I move from Canberra to Sydney in a few weeks and at the moment is a one way trip. I can’t come back until health orders allow me to.

Sure the government can't legally refuse Australians from returning, they've just imposed so many rules and barriers that make it very difficult or impossible in practice. 

I understand the need for the quarantine, but the fact that they charge arrivals for the quarantine costs and that they keep the quota so low shows that the government's more concerned with money than about the wellbeing of its oversea's citizens. Why not increase capacity for arrivals i.e. more hotels, or build new quarantine facilities? Money, not the interests of the citizens. And I'm pretty disgusted that the government prioritized international tennis players over Australians desperate to get home.

And I'm also really disappointed with the lack of empathy from many people back in Australia. 'You should have come back in March' blah blah blah. So much for mateship.

@dancer48

Strangely there was an ABCNEWS article I think which says there are actually more people travelling out of Australia than coming in since March 2020, almost double or even triple the arrivals I think

Granted a large proportion of departures will involve foreign nationals but at the end the article suggests more Aussies are leaving than returning 

XWu the greater number will be foreign nationals on work visas etc but not permanent residents/citizens who have been finding it easier to get exemptions.

@patrickk

I would have naturally made that assumption too, if I am not already aware that 34,379 Out of 104,785 applications for travel exemptions were approved from March 27 to Aug 16 2020

And the forum discussion involving travel exemption application shows that many approvals only occur within a few days of departure dates meaning that most people who had approvals leave Australia pretty much within a few days of getting it, ie at least 34k Australian residents had left our shores between March and August 2020 with very few people who already received their approvals still hanging around.

@patrickk

I would have naturally made that assumption too, if I am not already aware that 34,379 Out of 104,785 applications for travel exemptions were approved from March 27 to Aug 16 2020 (search “‘Definite shift' in Border Force approach to travel ban as approvals surge” on Fairfax news website). Note A request can cover more than one person.

And the Et forum discussion involving travel exemption application shows that many approvals only occur within a few days of departure dates meaning that most people who had approvals leave Australia pretty much within a few days of getting it, ie at least 34k Australian residents had left our shores between March and August 2020 with very few people who already received their approvals still hanging around.

The article can't be correct. Australian's can't leave except with an exemption, I suspect those largely leaving aren't Australians, but expats and foreign students etc.

@vitorsyd

It will be interesting to see if anyone did get that maximum imposed fine of $750k in Canada

But home quarantine arrangements cannot be guaranteed that they do not have visitors unless there are neighbours to dob them in or enough police/parasecurity personnel to physically spot check 

Vitorsyd the Canadian covid rates are going through the roof so probably not the best model to follow. How does Canada monitor visitors to quarantine houses.

Vitorsyd. The home quarantine for celebrities is on the basis they pay for the cop at their door all the time. Most of us wouldn’t be able to afford that and of course who watches the watcher.

Having just escaped from Canada you may wish to check their current case numbers . I don’t think any major fines have actually been imposed and I know of at least 10 people who returned to Canada (Ontario) to supposedly self isolate and they didn’t . The checks were rudimentary at best so the cdn system is highly flawed. In fact many officials keep saying they should take lessons from Australia .

@landed in Hong Kong

You are right to suggest that what is the quota does not actually reflect the actual numbers of arrival; I will suggest there will be a big discrepancy from the quota if the true numbers are known and I always hope the fury over the cap will force the federal government to reveal the actual numbers sonnet or later (but its been 6 months)

As for your remark of my “petty” posts, if you have been following the pattern and the announced capped numbers by state then you will realise what I meant. I much rather have people do their home work and form their own conclusion rather be the reactive 50 cents keyboard warriors you some accuse of. 

Hence I will neither verify or refute your proposed interpretation of what I said/wrote. A person who read my posts carefully, and go back to historical figures of cap arrivals in the last 6 months, will arrive at the same conclusion as I did, and agreed what I wrote was factually correct.

Whether you would bother is up to you. Same for the rest of the keyboard warriors.

And by the way, to be clear, although I agree there are no Nobel Prize for category of mathematics per se, there are many Nobel Prize winning mathematicians for which the movie “A Beautiful Mind” is based on John Nash who won it under Economics. The Nobel Prizes were awarded not for the technicalities of mathematics involved but the application of the mathematics hence most mathematicians won it under Physics or Economics categories.

I think you have failed to understand my point. The question is not the accuracy of the number of travellers that the states are willing and able to accept. The problem is the snide, nasty little comment you make, and I quote "Certainly food for thought about who is doing the majority of the lifting, who is taking on more than their fair share (and those who aren’t)"; especially as you point out that the actual arrivals do not actually reflect the quota. Your post is inflammatory and inaccurate.

Thank you for your lecture on mathematics, but for completeness you should have mentioned the Fields Medal.

Does your post about how bad some states are earn you a 50 cent credit??

Just an additional hint to the very few who would bother to do the homework, the following remark from my previous post in this article 

“ And more importantly, one particular state seemed to get off very lightly in their obligation, consistently throughout the entire 6 months since the introduction of capped arrivals ”

Why not just come out and say that you think that Australians who happen to live in VICTORIA should have maintained their intake whilst they all worked really hard and made huge sacrifices to get their state back down to zero cases (before the infected people from NSW ruined this). No need to beat around the bush, we all know that you are having a go at Victorians whilst we battled the virus. Perhaps we should return to pre 1901 and only take residents of our own state??

Your comment is really disgusting from an "Australian" - we are all in this together!!!

Just an additional hint to the very few who would bother to do the homework, the following remark from my previous post in this article 

“ And more importantly, one particular state seemed to get off very lightly in their obligation, consistently throughout the entire 6 months since the introduction of capped arrivals ”

XWu that state you are referring to is Victoria which had a complete breakdown of quarantine (and an enquiry to get to the bottom of it) and a massive health emergency with a full lockdown with curfews. I’m no sure what you are suggesting that should have been different beyond not trusting private security companies at the outset.

谢谢你

I maintain that you have two different topics

The factual figures - not disputed

Your narrative and commentary on the states - I am happy that in Australia we have the ability to engage in open debate without interference from the government; so I respect your right to comment on the quota. Likewise i also have the freedom to state that I believe your comments are unnecessary and do little to ensure or promote a national approach to the problem - we are after all, all Australians aren't we??

I wasn't attempting to compare Field with Nobel, I was simply stating that any analysis of past mathematicians who had won a Nobel should also mention the actual award for mathematics, especially given your in depth analysis.

@landed in Hong Kong 

Thank you for your reply 

My previous reply still stands. Again I invite any open minded person to do their homework, read how I frame my original post and look at the historical published numbers of arrival quota in the last 6 months before further commenting on my comments. As I did not want to promote bias to anyone who may decide to take up my challenge to investigate the issue independently before forming their own conclusion, I had to refrain from addressing your interpretation no matter how much I want to. 

I am just curious if anyone who can gather the data from various reporting outlets freely available in the public domain, would get sufficient information and form the same conclusion as I do.

I am, however, not restrained from responding to your assertion that my “comments are unnecessary and do little to ensure or promote a national approach to the problem”.

What did you think is going on when I wrote with respect to state governments’ quota when I wrote:

“who is doing the majority of the lifting, 

who is taking on more than their fair share

 (and those who aren’t)"

Did you think ScoMo tells the states what numbers they would be taking or it’s more of what the states are willing to take?

If there is truly a national (we’re one big happy family and let’s get everybody home) approach then the wait list for returning Australians should be easily sorted in the 6 months. 

Instead the caps meant airlines cannot carry enough people to break even so the natural response for them is to sell only expensive tickets which is one (albeit inequitable) way of choosing who to take while complying with the quota given to the airlines.

So far the National Cabinet put on a brave face talking about consensus, but in many cases, each state takes away their own interpretation of what they supposedly agree on so there is some irony/frustration when ScoMo announced one thing then the next minute in a state premier conference it’s a different spin. Interestingly the arrival quota rarely seemed to have conflicting interpretation but I suspect it’s because it’s a quota not actual figures which is largely set by state government making available of quarantine spots and airline making the expensive seats available.

But my issue here is not the actual arrival numbers, but the quota largely determined by the state governments (in my opinion).

Consider the quota by states

Consider the population by states (whose residents overseas should be roughly of similar proportion)

Consider the proportion of international visits (which reflects the capacity to take in travellers in the capital cities)

Look up the quota numbers from July 2020. 

Look at the changes. Sure some adjustments is needed due to various state crises, some have to reduce, some have to increase (and some increased far more than they need to if you look at the % population of the states concerned)

Despite this, one state, consistently in the 6 months of capped arrival, gave a quota lower than expected by proportion or by capacity. Even when they “increase” in response to interstate crises.

I find it maddening that the public has not called out this state for this failure, and that in order to maintain the appearance of a united front (when it is obviously not), no one, not the PM or his office or other states pointed out this aberration. 

So I would suggest that this invitation is to call out this unAustralian behaviour so that this state will be obliged to take more, and get more people home.

And that is my “national solution”.

This is my last post on this particular matter (but not to this article in general)

(Steps off my soapbox)

Zigi great idea except we now know we need more than on test and also we don’t know how the vaccine affects infectiousness, as against reducing symptoms which we know they do. So until everyone is vaccinated then the current regime makes sense as, as we have seen, if one infectious person is out there tge bug can get away.

Just listening to all the political spin saying we can go back to normal once the vaccine is here, now that its here there is another spin to it.

So whats the point in the vaccine and all the time, money being spent on it??? (I just got it, its about the money and control for some)

Zigi the vaccine isn't here yet and wont be here for most of us until much later in the year. And the point of the vaccie is to stop you getting very sick and clogging up hospital beds and the health system more broadly.

Hi Zigi.

Firstly because the vaccine isn't widely available to the "general public" at the moment, certainly not here in Europe, and other less wealthy nations, well it could take up to a year for them to be vaccinated.
And secondly, the vaccine isn't 100% effective (or so they say). 
Instead my question would be; why are Australians who are desperately trying to get home being blamed for the spread of the new strain(s)? If they test positive, well aren't they supposed to be quarantined/hospitalised for more time? From all accounts, this is where the system is failing. Europe have been asking for a negative PCR test before flying for months, I've no idea why Mr Morrison has only just now decided to implement that no brainer!
The quarantine system needs to be managed a lot better, with better testing procedures, better discharge procedures, and all hospitality employees should be trained in PPE, tested regularly, and to be positioned in one qt premises only. 

I find it's easy for Aussie, who are currently in Australia, to say "get a flight" or "buy a business class ticket", but the reality is a much different story. I have Aussie friends in London, who had flights cancelled 4 times, and the airline are refusing to refund their money. (A$10k+). 

don't think many people are actually paying for quarantine.